[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 27

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 290300
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON APR 29 2003
 
..DRILL! DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILFRED LASHING PUERTO RICO...
..DAMAGING WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAIN...HIGH SURGE AND WAVES
   TO CONTINUE...
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FOR HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  66.9 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF PONCE...OR ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WILFRED HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD.  A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.  REMEMBER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE PRECISE
FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS COVER A WIDE SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 150 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILFRED IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED...
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 66.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM AST AND 3 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST...TUESDAY.
 
GUINEY
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
NNNN
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/290300m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/290300.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise