[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 26

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 282100
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON APR 28 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED BATTERING EASTERN PUERTO RICO...ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
COMPLETE...
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM ST
NICOLAS TO THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR
EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE  65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.  REMEMBER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER A WIDE SWATH.  THOSE EXPERIENCING THE CALM
EYE OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND NOT VENTURE
OUTDOORS AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AGAIN. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 150 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  SOME
FURTHER FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILFRED IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS NEAR 100 MPH WERE ESTIMATED ON A SHIP ANCHORED AT VIEQUES IN
THE PAST HOUR.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.55 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED...
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N... 65.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
110 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 967 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM AST AND 9 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/282100m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/282100.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise