[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 281900
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 PM AST MON APR 28 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED NEARING PUERTO RICO...
..ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED... 

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM ST
NICOLAS TO THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  A HURRICANE WATCH WAS
ALSO ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD
TO GUANTANAMO. 
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 3 PM AST...1900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  65.2 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS
ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES AND ABOUT 65 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
VERY NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.  REMEMBER...IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE
HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER A WIDE SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 150 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  SOME
FURTHER FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILFRED IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THERE WAS AN UNOFFICIAL MEASUREMENT OF WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH AT ST.
CROIX AFTER THE EYE PASSED.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED.
 
REPEATING THE 3 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 65.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
AT 5 PM AST.
 
PASCH
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/281900m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/281900.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise