[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 281700
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM AST MON APR 28 2003

..DRILL! EYE OF WILFRED PASSING NEAR ST CROIX...PUERTO RICO NEXT...
ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION... 

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM ST
NICOLAS TO THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR ALL ISLANDS TO THE EAST OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MAINTAIN
PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  64.7 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS A
FEW MILES NORTH OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
VERY NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.  REMEMBER...IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE
HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER A WIDE SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 150 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  SOME
FURTHER FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILFRED IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED.
 
REPEATING THE 1 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 64.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
 
PASCH
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/281700m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/281700.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise