[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 25

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 281500
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON APR 28 2003

..WILFRED BEGINS POUNDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO NEXT...
ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION... 

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI FROM ST NICOLAS TO THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR
ALL ISLANDS TO THE EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXCEPT FOR ANTIGUA
AND BARBUDA...WHERE COMMUNICATION WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED...AND THE FRENCH ISLANDS OF ST. BARTHELEMY AND
ST MARTIN.  INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MAINTAIN PRECAUTIONS
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES
EAST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 125 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
REMEMBER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST
TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER
A WIDE SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 150 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  SOME
FURTHER FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILFRED IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM AST AND 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/281500m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/281500.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise