[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 281200
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM AST MON APR 28 2003

..DRILL! DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILFRED HEADED FOR VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO 
   RICO...ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  THIS INCLUDES THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO AND ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...SABA...ST
MARTIN...ANGUILLA...GUADELOUPE AND DOMINICA.
 
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  63.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES
..120 KM...EAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THIS
POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
.. AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK
..THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.  REMEMBER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A
POINT AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER A WIDE SWATH.
     
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FURTHER FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
WILFRED IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING ABOVE 90 MPH AT ST MARTIN FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  THE CENTER PASSED ABOUT 40 TO 50 MILES TO THE SOUTH
OF THAT ISLAND. 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.
  
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...17.5 N... 63.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
110 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
 
LAWRENCE/PASCH/RAPPAPORT
  
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/281200m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/281200.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise