[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 24

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 280900
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON APR 28 2003

..DRILL! DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILFRED POUNDING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD THROUGH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  THIS INCLUDES THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AND ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...SABA...ST MARTIN...ANGUILLA...GUADELOUPE AND DOMINICA.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE DISCONTINUED FOR
MARTINIQUE AND ST. LUCIA.

PREPARATIONS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  63.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
..70 KM...SOUTH OF ST MARTIN...AND ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...EAST
OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
.. AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK
..THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
     
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICAN HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH
..175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FURTHER FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND
SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILFRED IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM ANTIGUA GAVE A WIND SPEED OF 94 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 116 MPH..SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  THE WINDS AT ST MARTIN
INCREASED TO 56 MPH SUSTAINED AT 4 AM AST. 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.
  
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.4 N... 63.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 967 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.
 
LAWRENCE
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
  
NNNN
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/280900m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/280900.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise