[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 23

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 280300
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN APR 27 2003

..DRILL! DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILFRED BEARING DOWN ON THE LEEWARD
   ISLANDS...
  
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT 
FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA.

A REMINDER: A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
BEEN COMPLETED.  ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA...PREPARATIONS SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  61.4 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
..45 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

WILFRED IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.  THIS
MOTION IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARD THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  REMEMBER: IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE PRECISE TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANE 
IS NOT A POINT AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER A WIDE SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WILFRED IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...
BUT WILFRED IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. 

GUSTS TO 88 MPH...142 KM/H...HAVE BEEN REPORTED TWO HOURS AGO 
ON THE ISLAND OF DESIRADE.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT. 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE
OF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...16.9 N... 61.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST...MONDAY.
 
GUINEY
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/280300m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/280300.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise