[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 280000
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM AST SUN APR 27 2003

..DRILL! EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CLOSING IN ON THE ISLANDS OF THE
   NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT 
FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA.
 
A REMINDER: A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  IF YOU ARE
ANYWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA...YOU SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE WORST.
 
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  60.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES
..135 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED ON THE ISLAND OF
DESIRADE...JUST EAST OF GUADELOUPE.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. 
A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. 
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE 
TO SPECIFY THE PRECISE PATH THAT THE EYE OF GEORGE WILL FOLLOW. 
REMEMBER: THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER 
A WIDE SWATH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...200 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WILFRED IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...
BUT WILFRED IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE
OF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 963 MB...28.43 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...16.7 N... 60.6 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD
..WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
 
GUINEY
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/280000m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/280000.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise