[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 22

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 272100
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN APR 27 2003
 
..DRILL! EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CLOSING IN ON THE ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO RICO.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA.
 
A REMINDER: A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  IF YOU ARE ANYWHERE
IN THE WARNING AREA...YOU SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE WORST.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  59.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...150 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
SHORTLY AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
NEARING COMPLETION.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.  A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. 
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY THE PRECISE PATH THAT THE EYE OF GEORGE WILL FOLLOW. 
REMEMBER: THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER A
WIDE SWATH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WILFRED IS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILFRED IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND
SIZE TO HURRICANE HUGO WHEN IT HIT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS IN 1989.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE
OF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE.
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...16.5 N... 59.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
NNNN
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/272100m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/272100.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise