[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

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ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 271800
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM AST SUN APR 27 2003

..DRILL! EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEARING DOWN ON THE
ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO RICO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA.

A REMINDER: A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  IF YOU ARE ANYWHERE
IN THE WARNING AREA...YOU SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE WORST.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE  59.2 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...245 KM...EAST OF
GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.  A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.  BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SPECIFY
THE PRECISE PATH THAT THE EYE OF GEORGE WILL FOLLOW. 
BUT...REMEMBER: THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
COVER A WIDE SWATH.  

WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
SHORTLY AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
NEARING COMPLETION.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  WILFRED IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND SIZE TO HURRICANE HUGO
WHEN IT HIT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IN 1989.  
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN
ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 
949 MB...28.02 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...16.4 N... 59.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
 
PASCH
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/271800m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/271800.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise