[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 21

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 271500
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN APR 27 2003

..DRILL! EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEARING DOWN ON THE
ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO RICO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  58.5 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.  A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.  HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN A FEW HOURS AND
PREPARATIONS THERE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  WILFRED IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND SIZE TO HURRICANE HUGO
WHEN IT HIT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IN 1989.  
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN
ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...16.3 N... 58.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
NNNN
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/271500m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/271500.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise