[CVRC] Sunspot Surge Predicted

[W6VZ at aol.com]

Sun's next 11-year cycle could be 50 pct stronger

By Deborah Zabarenko
Mon Mar 6, 2006pm ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sun-spawned cosmic storms that can play havoc with 
earthly power grids and orbiting satellites could be 50 percent stronger in the 
next 11-year solar cycle than in the last one, scientists said on Monday.

Using a new model that takes into account what happens under the sun's 
surface and data about previous solar cycles, astronomers offered a long-range 
forecast for solar activity that could start as soon as this year or as late as 
2008.

They offered no specific predictions of solar storms, but they hope to 
formulate early warnings that will give power companies, satellite operators and 
others on and around Earth a few days to prepare.

"This prediction of an active solar cycle suggests we're potentially looking 
at more communications disruptions, more satellite failures, possible 
disruptions of electrical grids and blackouts, more dangerous conditions for 
astronauts," said Richard Behnke of the Upper Atmosphere Research Section at the 
National Science Foundation.

"Predicting and understanding space weather will soon be even more vital than 
ever before," Behnke said at a telephone news briefing.

The prediction, roughly analogous to the early prediction of a severe 
hurricane season on Earth, involves the number of sunspots on the solar surface, 
phenomena that have been monitored for more than a century.

TWISTED MAGNETIC FIELDS

Every 11 years or so, the sun goes through an active period, with lots of 
sunspots. This is important, since solar storms -- linked to twisted magnetic 
fields that can hurl out energetic particles -- tend to occur near sunspots.

The sun is in a relatively quiet period now, but is expected to get more 
active soon, scientists said. However, there is disagreement as to whether the 
active period will start within months -- late 2006 or early 2007 -- or years, 
with the first signs in late 2007 or early 2008.

Whenever it begins, the new forecasting method shows sunspot activity is 
likely to be 30 percent to 50 percent stronger than the last active period. The 
peak of the last cycle was in 2001, the researchers said, but the period of 
activity can span much of a decade.

The strongest solar cycle in recent memory occurred in the late 1950s, when 
there were few satellites aloft, no astronauts in orbit and less reliance on 
electrical power grids than there is now.

If a similarly active period occurred now, the impact would be hard to 
predict, according to Joseph Kunches of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric 
Administration's Space Environment Center in Colorado.

"It's pretty uncertain what would happen, which makes this work more 
relevant," Kunches said.

"What we have here is a prediction that the cycle is going to be very active, 
and what we need and what we're of course working on is to be able to predict 
individual storms with a couple days or hours in advance so the grids can 
take the action," Behnke said.

Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.