[CTSARA] Hurricane Update - Thursday Night

[Jon Perelstein]

So I'm still awake at 11pm.  I forgot that this is Burn Notice and Suits
night on USA Network, plus I still had The Glades from Sunday night and
Alphas from Monday night recorded that I hadn't watched.

Anyway, there hasn't been a lot of change in the models since the 5pm
forecast, except that they've increased their estimate of storm width when
it hits us.  That's not good.

Two models show Irene passing west of us.  However, both would give us
sustained bouts of 39-57 mph winds, and one would give us a sustained bout
of 58-73 mph winds.  Not good.

One model shows Irene passing within 50 miles to our east, which means that
we'd get a sustained bout of 58-73 mile winds preceded and followed by
sustained bouts of 39-57 mph winds.  Not good.

Five models show it passing sufficiently east of us that we would get
relatively short periods of 39-57 mph winds.  We like those models, but
right now they are the statistical outliers (i.e., less likely to come
true).

The official National Weather Service forecast is essentially an averaging
of all the models, and it shows the eye of the storm hitting Stamford head
on.  THAT means we get all the worst, and it lasts pretty much forever.
 Unfortunately, the so-called consensus model is tracking close to the NWS
model, and the consensus model often turns out to be the winner.

All in all, it means that we're probably going to get slammed (unless we get
lucky and the thing decides to show love to the statistical outliers.

Please make sure that you have water and food, critical medicine,
flashlights and batteries, candles (AND MATCHES), gas for your generator,
and plastic sheeting (plus a staple gun or hammer and nails or duct tape) in
case you lose some windows.  As of 5pm, Karps still had a good supply of
plastic sheeting and tarps.

Towels wrapped in plastic bags or plastic sheeting are very effective for
blocking leaks in window frames.

Also make sure that you take in anything outside that the wind can use as a
weapon.  That includes things like patio tables and chairs, lawn ornaments,
garbage pails, bird feeders, gardening tools, welcome mats, and garden
hoses.

It's probably best to take down antennas if possible.  One alternative on
horizontal wire antennas such as dipoles is to give them plenty of slack so
as to reduce the likelihood of them or the support ropes snapping.

Please check the   bepreparedstamford.org    web site for additional
checklists and info.

Next update is at 5am.  The dogs will make sure I'm up by then.

73s
Jon