[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

[arrl-ok@mailman.qth.net]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A 
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH 
TEXAS. 

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER...TO 
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO RINGLING. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF THE 
MODERATE RISK AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MANCHESTER...TO TALOGA...TO 
FREDERICK...TO MEGARGEL IN NORTH TEXAS.  

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM EARLY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE 
RISK AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND PLAN FOR 
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 
EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY 
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY. AT 
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 
MIDDAY. IN ADDITION... SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST ACROSS 
THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND 
NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. 

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY 
THIS MORNING... IN AN AREA OF COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES... 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH 
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...MORE 
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND 
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A LAYER OF WARM AIR 
ABOVE THE SURFACE ...OR CAPPING INVERSION...IS WEAKENED BY COLDER 
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA. GREATER AMOUNTS OF 
INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE RISK AREAS...WITH THE 
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK. DUE TO THE COOLER 
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...LARGE HAIL 
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. 

BY LATE THIS EVENING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.   

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. 

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE. 

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 
NOON TODAY.

    



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