[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

[arrl-ok@mailman.qth.net]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK 
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. 

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE...TO 
MADILL OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK 
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MANCHESTER TO CLINTON TO WAURIKA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM EARLY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE 
RISK AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND 
STATEMENTS AND PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE... 
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CADDO COUNTY OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM 
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO NEAR ADA AND ATOKA.  
A DRYLINE EXTENDED NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 35 FROM NEAR 
PURCELL TO MARIETTA. A COLD FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS 
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE EAST 
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND 
EAST OF THE DRYLINE... VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER 
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON 
AND THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL 
AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. 

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST... CONDITIONS AT LOW LEVELS ARE COOLER AND 
DRIER... BUT COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE 
NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ARE STILL CREATING AN UNSTABLE 
ATMOSPHERE AND RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE 
HAIL... BUT AGAIN THE WIND SHEAR AT LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT 
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

BY LATE THIS EVENING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.   

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...95 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. 

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE. 

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM 
SATURDAY


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