[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

[arrl-ok@mailman.qth.net]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS=20
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS A=20
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS=20
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND=20
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.=20

LOCATION...THE HIGH RISK IS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ARNETT TO=20
CLINTON TO FREDERICK OKLAHOMA TO SEYMOUR TEXAS. THE MODERATE RISK=20
AREA IS EAST OF THE HIGH RISK AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD=20
TO HOLDENVILLE OKLAHOMA. THE MODERATE RISK INCLUDES THE OKLAHOMA=20
CITY METRO AREA... AND THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS=20
INCLUDING WICHITA FALLS. THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE REMAINDER OF=20
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.=20

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM EARLY=20
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE=20
RISK AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND PLAN FOR=20
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY=20
FRIDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING FROM ARIZONA INTO=20
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE... A=20
DRYLINE IS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM=20
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NEAR THE DALLAS METROPLEX AND WEST INTO WEST=20
TEXAS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW=20
MEXICO AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL=20
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA... LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL=20
DEEPEN ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP=20
MOVE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TOWARD THE DRYLINE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE=20
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE=20
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL=20
THEN MOVE OR DEVELOP INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH=20
TEXAS... MOST LIKELY BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE=20
EXTREME ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW=20
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES...=20
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH AND MODERATE RISK AREAS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND=20
DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.=20

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE=20
NIGHT AS THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.=A0 THE=20
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL=20
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF=20
TORNADOES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 16.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0 NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80=20=
PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.


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