[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

[arrl-ok@mailman.qth.net]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS 
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS A 
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND 
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. 

LOCATION...THE HIGH RISK IS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ARNETT TO 
CLINTON TO FREDERICK TO CROWELL TEXAS. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS 
EAST OF THE HIGH RISK AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE OKLAHOMA TO 
HENRIETTA TEXAS. THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. 

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE 
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE 
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING 
WAS MOVING EASTWARD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED 
FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE 
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. AS 
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES...A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE 
SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER WEST TEXAS WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING 
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW 
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED THIS 
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR HEATING AND FURTHER 
DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. 

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE OR DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF 
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THE EXTREME 
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. 
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY 
IN AND NEAR THE HIGH RISK AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS 
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVES 
EASTWARD.      


 
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 16.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 
1/2 MILE AT TIMES...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN 
FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER A BRIEF 
RESPITE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY . 


OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE. 

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON 
TODAY.
    



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