[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

Mon, 2 Jun 2003 15:38:44 EDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AT MIDDAY WAS LOCATED ON AN AXIS FROM=20
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL=20
OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE=20
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS=20
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD=20
THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. WARM=20
AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR REMAINED IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE=20
FRONT...BUT AS OF MIDDAY A CAP WAS PRESENT AND WAS PREVENTING=20
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...=20
COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WAS MOVING IN ON GUSTY NORTH TO=20
NORTHWEST WINDS.=20

SINKING AIR BEHIND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH THE COOLER AND=20
MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES OF=20
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE=20
IS STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER=20
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT=20
AREA...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND THE GREATER CHANCE OF SEVERE=20
WEATHER WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.=20

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER=20
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST FROM THE=20
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO=20
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE=20
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER=20
TERRAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA.=20

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUN 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0 NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40=20=
PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE HIGHER BOTH TUESDAY=20
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE=20
AREA...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE=20
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE=20
AREA INTO FRIDAY.=20

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS WEEK COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY=20
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH=20
INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM EVENTS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING=20
POTENTIAL FOR MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK=20
IF AREAS RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.=20

--- StripMime Report -- processed MIME parts ---
multipart/alternative
  text/plain (text body -- kept)
  text/html
The reason this message is shown is because the post was in HTML
or had an attachment.  Attachments are not allowed.  To learn how
to post in Plain-Text go to: http://www.expita.com/nomime.html  ---