[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

[arrl-ok@mailman.qth.net]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND 
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS..
DAY ONE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH 
TEXAS...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN 
OKLAHOMA AND THE REST OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.LOCATION...THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS 
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM QUANAH TO ARCHER CITY. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS 
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAVERNE...TO CARNEGIE...TO RINGLING.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGE FROM LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH MAY 
CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN 
THE MODERATE RISK AREA. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND 
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER 
OPERATIONS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY LASTING WELL AFTER DARK. 

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT MIDDAY...OVER PARTS OF WESTERN 
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BUT 
WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BASED AT MID 
LEVELS...AND WILL POSE LITTLE OR NO RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. A COMPLICATED 
SURFACE PATTERN WAS EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AREA TODAY. MIDDAY ANALYSES 
SHOWED A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND A 
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST INTO NORTHWEST AND 
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH...BUT IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ACROSS TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT 
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE 
CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN...THE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST TEXAS 
WILL BECOME POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES 
FORECAST TO REACH CLOSE TO 4000 BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE AIR IS 
LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT AFTERNOON HEATING AND 
WEAKENING OF THE CAP WILL LIKELY ALLOW SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...MAINLY TO THE WEST OR 
NORTHWEST OF THE NORMAN FORECAST AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY TO 
SEVERE LEVELS QUICKLY...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING 
THE EVENING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOW LEVELS...COUPLED WITH 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WILL CREATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES 
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL 
BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER STORMS INITIATE...BUT DAMAGING 
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE 
MODERATE RISK AREA. LATER TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE 
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER DARK. DAMAGING WINDS 
WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE CLUSTERS...BUT LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL 
ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.   
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JUN 4.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING 
AREA...100 PERCENT.PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR 
OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST DAY OR SO..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY. A SERIES 
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE 
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HIGH PLAINS OF 
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS WILL 
THEN LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE CLUSTERS AGAIN AS THEY MOVE 
SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME 
HOURS.OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS WEEK COULD BE 
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING 
WITH INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM EVENTS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 
MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK IF AREAS RECEIVE 
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.    



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