[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

Sun, 1 Jun 2003 15:15:59 EDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS  

OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
ALL OF NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND 
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... BUT THE MORE 
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 7 PM ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF 
OF OKLAHOMA...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND 
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

IMPACTS...
WINDS TO 70 MPH AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH
COULD CAUSE DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES...AUTOMOBILES...AND TENDER 
VEGETATION. 

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE 
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS 
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN INCREASING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS A 
WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THIS FRONT ACROSS 
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE 
POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. 
THIS COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL 
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH PLAINS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA 
SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...WILL ALLOW ONE 
OR MORE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO 
NORTHERN OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE 
WEATHER RISK WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE THESE 
COMPLEXES...WITH SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS MOST LIKELY. AFTER 
MIDNIGHT...ONE OR MORE OF THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES COULD MOVE 
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. 

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY JUN 2.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...95 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN 
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY ENDING BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN 
TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT 
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM 
THE NORTHWEST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE. 

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM 
MONDAY.

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