[TheForge] "Official" news from ABANA

[debmiller at fuse.net]

Dave,

I had been an ABANA member and subscriber to theforge and other related activities for a number of years. 

Like many on the list and in ABANA I am not a full time metal mangler.
I think I can also say that like many on the list finances are tight and ABANA is no different. 

I also believe the current climate surrounding ABANA and the conferences is not personal to ABANA. I think we are seeing the beginning of a seriously troublesome trend here in the USofA.

We are all getting older. The baby boomers are no spring chickens anymore, and as we age there are fewer and fewer people working in physically demanding and less than glamorous jobs. 

My day job is at the University of Cincinnati. I run our utility plants and teach in our College of Applied Science. This year we started a new Power Engineering associate degree program to address the same issue of dwindling numbers in the utility industry.  That industry is losing more than half is current staff over the next 5 or 6 years or so through retirements and we are struggling to find young people interested in working in power plants.

The building trades are having the same problems. The pipefitters local in Cincinnati is struggling to get people into their apprentice program. Power plants across the country are paying double time to get boilermakers for boiler outages. Heavy industrial manufacturers can't find people for field service domestically and international field service reps are making over $100,000 a year just to get warm bodies.

In the US I am really concerned about where we will be in another 10 years when we are all too creaky an no one has taken our places. Maybe coal forges and coal furnaces in homes will make a big resurgence. Get into candle making because I'm not too sure who's going to keep the lights on.

In addition to the staffing exodus, the average utility generating unit is over 30 years old!!! If you subtract the gas turbines installed in the last 10 years which are too expensive to run due to natural gas costs, the average age of a coal fired steam turbine generating unit is over 40 years old! And the average age of the nukes is as bad.

Not too sound too alarming, but something has got to wake up this country. The terrorists won't have to do a thing to make the US grind to halt in a few years. We'll reproduce the fall of the Roman empire all by ourselves unless something changes.

ABANA needs to re-evaluate how to attract young people to the field. We have to more than replace ourselves. A bunch of us AARP members getting together every two years is not the answer. Some how we need to shift the demographics.

For ABANA, or the utility industry to survive we need to drop the average age of participation or employment below middle age.

Creaky Ray in Cincinnati

Sorry if I sound too pessimistic. I do have hope. The UC power engineering program is one of 14 in the US today, and more are starting up all the time.  The reality is that power production cannot be outsourced to India or Pakistan and there is job security.

Associate degree grads are starting out over $20/hr. Good money for young kids.
 



---- Dave Mudge <dave at magichammer.net> wrote: 
> I have been following the conversations about ABANA and the '08
> Conference, but was bound by corporate bologna to wait for the
> "OFFICIAL" news release before I could talk about it. Some of your
> questions are hitting the mark and some are way off base but all are
> valid. As vice president, affiliate liaison, and chairman of member
> services, I will be happy to answer questions now.
> dave mudge
> The following is the "official" word on ABANA's position.
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> 
> 
> Whoever said  "the more things change … the more they stay the same"
> doesn't know the plights of non-profit organizations.  Because what I
> want to talk about is this - ABANA must change its focus to be
> relevant for another 34 years.  ABANA has come to that fork in the
> road – where do we go from here?  Or as Yogi Berra would say – "When
> you come to a fork in the road, take it."  We are taking it, grasping
> it and coming up with some difficult decisions.
> 
> 
> 
> ABANA has been producing conferences every other year for decades now.
>  Well the time has come to reevaluate how we do these events.   We,
> the ABANA Board, have decided not to have a conference for 2008.  This
> decision did not come overnight.  After months of discussions and
> negotiating a formal motion was made on February 9 "that ABANA not
> have its biennial conference in 2008."  On February 13 , the motion
> passed by a vote of 14-0.
> 
> 
> 
> As painful as this decision was I know it cannot compare to the
> disappointment of individuals of the Northeast Blacksmith Association
> (NBA).   Since the Fall of 2004 the NBA put a great deal of time and
> energy into the possibility of having the conference at the State
> University of New York at New Paltz.  Jonathan Nedbor and the Steering
> Committee of NBA are to be commended for all the work they have done.
> 
> 
> 
> So why aren't we having a Conference?  What's the deal?  Is ABANA
> going bankrupt?  Let me start by answering the last question first –
> NO.  Though I wish the financial situation were stronger, we are not
> going bankrupt.  To put things in a simple nutshell here is a quick
> summary of the conferences.  They have become too expensive.  They
> cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, which is too much!  That
> doesn't even include the thousands of hours from all of the
> volunteers.  For many years ABANA has supplemented its budget by
> living off the profit from previous Conferences.  We can no longer do
> that.  The Seattle Conference was not the financial success of
> previous Conferences.   It probably lost money.  We still do not know
> the final tally, because there is an outstanding invoice from the
> University of Washington.  When we do know the accounting figures,
> they will be posted on the ABANA website.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So why no Conference.
> 
> 
> 
> First there is the Money –
> 
> The costs to put on a Conference have skyrocketed to somewhere in the
> vicinity of $400,000.   With those figures the average conference
> expense including transportation would be in the $1,000 per person
> range.  The majority of our members cannot afford to pay that.  Of
> course we all agree that costs must be trimmed.  We need to look at
> other locations such as fairgrounds.  The college campus environment
> has gotten too expensive.  The number of demonstrators has gone
> through the roof.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Second there is the Conference Chair -
> 
> Every Conference needs to have someone in charge to do the
> negotiations, troubleshoot, make decisions, etc.  This is a full-time
> job!  Past Chairs who have held this position have burned out – just
> ask Dave Koenig and Bill Callaway.  And did I mention that this job
> pays nothing?! No one wanted to step up and be Chairman for the 2008
> Conference.
> 
> 
> 
> Third there is the Membership –
> 
> The membership has declined in recent months.  A year ago the number
> totaled 4815.  Today it is 4468.  Our budget figures are based on a
> membership of approximately 5000.  Without that number there would be
> practically no funds to pay for seed money or pre-conference expenses.
>  Another factor to consider regarding membership is the number of
> attendees to our biennial Conferences.  Seattle had 575 paid
> attendees, which equates to less than 14% of our membership.  This has
> been a consistent percentage over the last several Conferences.  That
> low figure is another indication that we are definitely not meeting
> the needs of our members.
> 
> 
> 
> Fourth there is the Central Office –
> 
> LeeAnn Mitchell performed many duties on the three previous conferences –
> 
> La  Crosse, Richmond, and Seattle.  She worked tirelessly at each of
> these events putting in many hours of "volunteer" work.  Much was
> asked of her and she did it - beautifully.  There is new a Central
> Office Administrator, Heather Hutton, of Knoxville, TN.  She has many
> strengths and will be a valuable asset to ABANA, but her experience in
> working with large conferences has not been tested.  Without a
> Conference Chair this would be an impossible task for the new Central
> Office.
> 
> 
> 
> So where do we go from here?  This is a question that I asked in my
> message to the affiliates.  I know that many of you like me look
> forward to getting together with old friends.  For that reason alone
> the idea of not having the Conference will be a great disappointment.
> The first ABANA Conference I attended was Birmingham in 1988 – Sloss
> Furnace.  The sharing and camaraderie alone won me over.  There will
> be other Conferences, but we need a new model.  I want to continue
> this dialog in future letters. Please let me know your thoughts.  ALL
> suggestions are germane.  There are no stupid ideas.
> 
> 
> 
> The more things change … the more we need to change …
> 
> Clare Yellin, President of ABANA
> 
> 
>  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> _______________________________________________
> Manage membership or unsubscribe at:
> http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/theforge
> theforge mail list group photo site is
> http://www.photoaccess.com
> Login:  blacksmithblacksmith at hotmail.com
> password:  anvil
> ___________
> 
>