[Skywarn] 5 Day Forecast - Debby

[Randall Bachman]

I wonder if the uncertainties in the modeling might have been lessened sooner if they had run the reconissaince flight sooner. It seemed to me the eye location was the model's big wildcard last week. Of course its possible there was no eye to be seen!


Randy

KE5IEU


On Jun 25, 2012, at 11:41 AM, How's The Weather? <WeatherConditions at LedermanHome.com> wrote:






Two days ago, the NHC was forecasting a Texas land fall. Yesterday, the
 forecast "cone" turned into a circle, indicating the uncertainty associated
 with attempting to anticipate where it'll go. When I saw the Circle of
 Uncertainly, at that moment I realized the 5 day forecast ain't bad.
 
The models were all over the place.
 
The mistake was to rely too heavily on the European model, which took Debby
 into Texas.
 
Lesson learned.
 
Even "the most reliable" model can be unreliable.
 

On Sun, Jun 24, 2012 at 2:02 PM, How's The Weather? <
 WeatherConditions at ledermanhome.com> wrote:
 
> Greetings.
 >
 > Just sent this email to the National Hurricane Center:
 >
 > "To Whom This May Concern:
 >
 > In my humble opinion, and with UTMOST respect and admiration for the work
 > being done at NHC, it was shortsighted and irresponsible to issue a 5 day
 > forecast for Tropical Storm Debby.
 >
 > Considering the amazing divergence and lack of agreement among the
 > forecast models, it would have been more prudent to issue a *3 day
 > forecast*with this caveat: "Due to the lack of consensus among the
 > forecast models, we can responsibly issue only a 3 day forecast. When
 > there is more agreement among the models, we will consider extending our
 > forecast."
 >
 > By going out 5 days, and being incorrect, you appear unreliable.
 >
 > And you certainly don't want to do that..."
 >
 >
 > Thoughts?
 >
 > Thanks!
 >
 > Jan
 >
 > --
 > *Jan C. Lederman, Ph.D.*
 > *Broward County FL Coordinator* *
 > *
 > *Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network*
 > *Station Number FL-BW-1*
 > *954.483.6838*
 > *WeatherConditions at LedermanHome.com <weatherconditions at ledermanhome.com>*
 > *http://www.cocorahs.org*
 >
 > * "Anyone seen my rain gauge?" *
 > *
 > *
 > *"I get the news I need on the weather report." -- Paul Simon*
 > *
 > *
 > *"Some people are weatherwise, but most are otherwise” -- Ben Franklin*
 >
 >
 

-- 
*Jan C. Lederman, Ph.D.*
 *Broward County FL Coordinator* *
 *
 *Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network*
 *Station Number FL-BW-1*
 *954.483.6838*
 *WeatherConditions at LedermanHome.com <weatherconditions at ledermanhome.com>*
 *http://www.cocorahs.org*
 
* "Anyone seen my rain gauge?" *
 *
 *
 *"I get the news I need on the weather report." -- Paul Simon*
 *
 *
 *"Some people are weatherwise, but most are otherwise” -- Ben Franklin*
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