[SignalOne] Collectables and the end of "SSB".

[signalone@mailman.qth.net]

** Reply to note from bill Fri, 12 Dec 2003 00:25:00 -0500 (EST)

> But what do you think will happen when digital radio finally takes hold? 
> There seems to be quite a bit of resistance to the new technology at 
> present, but seems the conversion is inevatible and our old friends will no 
> longer capture radio drama or short wave programs from across the globe. 
>  
> I think of Atwater-Kent breadboard battery-set receivers.  They were selling 
> several years ago for $1200++ a copy, but have dropped back to $900 or so. 
>  
> Just curious, don't have a strong opinion one way or the other.  Do 
> receivers have to be functional to be collectable?  Will non-technical 
> people appreciate this equipment?

Good points.  I have my opinions on this.

I understand digital radio from a fundamental basis, I don't follow
that industry. 

I'm a software engineer (assembly language (35 years) and C (20 years)
programmer) with an M.S. Computer Science from G.W.U.'s school of
engineering and applied sciences.

There isn't much benefit from "digital radio" for ham style operation.
While there are compelling technical reasons to implement a combination
of spread-spectrum, error correction, and so on, there is little point
when you consider that the military has essentially abandoned HF for
sat-comms.

Add in the rush to land based fibre for long hauls and bridges to
microwave Point-of-presence, what's the point of "digital radio"?

You don't come out and say it but I'm guessing that you're thinking of
a spread-spectrum, band-hopping protocol that would give phone-quality,
no-QSB, no-QRM, no-QRN HF comms, and add in automatic logging.  

Could be done and it would obsolete the boat anchors. 

The problem is, a cheap cell phone already does that and more.  Factor
in VoIP and WiFi and what's the point of HF SSB (or QSK)?

The point isn't to talk to someone.  The point is that we are experts
at fencing, competitive horseback riding, and a Signal/One is a genuine
Masamune Katana.  Put in plain talk.  The perfect comm system is the
cell phone.  The cheapest economy car beats the best quarter horse
ever.  Any moped will outrun a horse. 

There is an ebb and flow of valuations.  You are right about
valuations.

The curve looks like this.  Values fall for 10-20 years. In the late
1970's 15 year old AC-Cobras and V-12 Ferrari's fell to under $20,000,
some were less.  

Suddenly, everyone wakes up and goes, "wha-wha-WHAT! There are no more
XXXX available for a song!"  Then the price begins a several decade
rise.  This continues as that generation ages and there is a first peak
about 40, 50 years out.  

That's when the first generation have their millions to spend and are
marrying Anna Nicole Smith.  

After 50 years, the price curves flatten but continue up as fashions
change and likely matching the ebb and flow of the economy.

Some things are overpriced.  The "Catalin" radios, baseball cards a
couple decades ago, the guitars I mentioned.  Overpriced means that
while a few dealers are manipulating the market for many yuppie-boomers
with too much money and no ability for critical thinking, that at some
point, folk will wake up and realize that a mass produced guitar is a
mass produced guitar and has no inherent collectable value.

There's also the issue of how many of something were made.   Nothing
that exists in hundreds of thousands can hold the valuation.  There are
too many examples of antique furniture, '65 Mustangs, Catalin radios,
baseball cards, etc. 

It has to exist in small quantities, 1,000, 100, 10. 

I "think" receivers should work and be used but the collectable
industry prizes appearance over function.

Non-technical folk do what trend-leaders tell them to do.  Again, the
guitar example.  How many people can play the guitar like Joe Walsh of
the Eagles?  How many guitar collectors can play half (whatever that
means) as well?

Joe Walsh has an SX-88, SX-115, 75A-4, and KWS-1.  

If I enjoy the Signal/One CX7A, get a thrill from opening the case and
looking in amazement at the technololgy, well, I didn't spend a lot for
it and I'm having a terrific experience.  I'm not selling it. Very
likely most of the current owners will not sell their radios.

At some point, there will be none available at *any* price.  At that
point in time, the price will climb until someone decides to sell.

The last SX-88 to sell on eBay went for $7,100.  I suspect that you
could buy a new general coverage radio, a better performing one for
under $500.  

If a dumb looking "Catalin" radio or a mass produced guitar can sell
for $20,000, $30,000, then why wouldn't an SX-88 or CX7A sell for
$100,000?