[SFDXA] ARLP003 The ARRL Solar Report

[Bill]

ARLP003 The ARRL Solar Report

	

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003

ARLP003 The ARRL Solar Report

ZCZC AP03

QST de W1AW

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3 ARLP003

 From ARRL Headquarters

Newington, CT January 16, 2026

To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP003

ARLP003 The ARRL Solar Report

Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.6 flare on January 
14 from new region AR4341. Spot classification of this region is 
complicated by limb proximity and foreshortening effects. New Region 
AR4342 rotated around the NE limb and was also numbered. No 
Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed. Solar 
activity is expected to be low with a 25-30% chance for M-class flares 
(R1-R2, minor-moderate) to January 17.

Solar wind parameters were elevated under continued negative polarity 
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) influences. Solar wind speed 
ranged mostly between 450-570 km/s.

Another enhancement in the solar wind is expected early on January 17 
when a current, positive polarity, CH HSS is expected to become 
geoeffective. Solar wind speed is likely to exceed 700 km/s based on 
recurrent data.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected 
to reach high levels on January 21 to 27, and then on January 30 and 
31st due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal 
holes. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to 
moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic 
storm levels on January 29, unsettled to active levels on January 19 to 
23, and then on 27 and 28. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are 
due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent Coronal Hole 
High Speed Streams. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to 
mostly quiet.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's 
Ionosphere, January 15, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Within the 27-day fluctuation, as expected, the solar radio noise power 
flux curve on the wavelength of 10.7 cm passed through a minimum of 111 
s.f.u. on January 11. Whereupon began to rise slowly. The rise will 
continue, mainly due to new activity around the southeastern limb of the 
solar disk, where the currently largest active region, AR4341, has 
emerged. Even before its emergence, it made itself known with M-class 
solar flares accompanied by CMEs.

"Other significant formations on the Sun include three coronal holes. 
The second largest is now located on the northwest part of the solar 
disk. The solar wind blowing from its edges is likely to cause a shorter 
increase in geomagnetic activity on January 17. Significantly stronger 
disturbances can be expected about a week later, when the large coronal 
hole will move from the southeast of the solar disk to the central 
meridian. This will happen simultaneously with AR4341, causing a 
significant increase in solar flux and also geomagnetic activity."

The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 17 to 23 is 5, 5, 18, 15, 
12, 8, and 6, with a mean of 9.9. Predicted Planetary K Index is 2, 2, 
4, 4, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3. 10.7-centimeter flux is 106, 106, 
110, 115, 125, 135, and 140, with a mean of 119.6.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see 
www.arrl.org/propagation 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zNTI5MDYwJnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT00MTE5MjEyMw/index.html> 
and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at 
www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zNTI5MDYwJnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT00MTE5MjEyNA/index.html>. 
For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see 
www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zNTI5MDYwJnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT00MTE5MjEyNQ/index.html>. 
Information and tutorials on propagation can be found at http://k9la.us 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zNTI5MDYwJnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT00MTE5MjEyNg/index.html>.

NNNN

/EX

	

	

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