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SB PROP @ ARL
$ARLP003
ARLP003 The
ARRL Solar
Report
ZCZC AP03
QST de W1AW
Propagation
Forecast
Bulletin 3
ARLP003
From ARRL
Headquarters
Newington, CT
January 16,
2026
To all radio
amateurs
SB PROP ARL
ARLP003
ARLP003 The
ARRL Solar
Report
Solar activity
reached
moderate
levels due to
an M1.6 flare
on January 14
from new
region AR4341.
Spot
classification
of this region
is complicated
by limb
proximity and
foreshortening
effects.
New Region
AR4342 rotated
around the NE
limb and was
also numbered.
No
Earth-directed
Coronal Mass
Ejections
(CMEs) were
observed.
Solar activity
is expected to
be low with a
25-30% chance
for M-class
flares (R1-R2,
minor-moderate) to January 17.
Solar wind
parameters
were elevated
under
continued
negative
polarity
coronal hole
high-speed
stream (CH
HSS)
influences.
Solar wind
speed ranged
mostly between
450-570 km/s.
Another
enhancement in
the solar wind
is expected
early on
January 17
when a
current,
positive
polarity, CH
HSS is
expected to
become
geoeffective.
Solar wind
speed is
likely to
exceed 700
km/s based on
recurrent
data.
The greater
than 2 MeV
electron flux
at
geosynchronous
orbit is
expected to
reach high
levels on
January 21 to
27, and then
on January 30
and 31st due
to the
anticipated
influence of
multiple,
recurrent
coronal holes.
The remainder
of the outlook
period is
likely to be
at normal to
moderate
levels.
Geomagnetic
field activity
is likely to
reach G1
(Minor)
geomagnetic
storm levels
on January 29,
unsettled to
active levels
on January 19
to 23, and
then on 27 and
28. All
enhancements
in geomagnetic
activity are
due to the
anticipated
influence of
multiple,
recurrent
Coronal Hole
High Speed
Streams. The
remainder of
the outlook
period is
expected to
mostly quiet.
Weekly
Commentary on
the Sun, the
Magnetosphere,
and the
Earth's
Ionosphere,
January 15,
2026, by F. K.
Janda, OK1HH:
"Within the
27-day
fluctuation,
as expected,
the solar
radio noise
power flux
curve on the
wavelength of
10.7 cm passed
through a
minimum of 111
s.f.u. on
January 11.
Whereupon
began to rise
slowly.
The rise will
continue,
mainly due to
new activity
around the
southeastern
limb of the
solar disk,
where the
currently
largest active
region,
AR4341, has
emerged. Even
before its
emergence, it
made itself
known with
M-class solar
flares
accompanied by
CMEs.
"Other
significant
formations on
the Sun
include three
coronal holes.
The second
largest is now
located on the
northwest part
of the solar
disk.
The solar wind
blowing from
its edges is
likely to
cause a
shorter
increase in
geomagnetic
activity on
January 17.
Significantly
stronger
disturbances
can be
expected about
a week later,
when the large
coronal hole
will move from
the southeast
of the solar
disk to the
central
meridian.
This will
happen
simultaneously
with AR4341,
causing a
significant
increase in
solar flux and
also
geomagnetic
activity."
The Predicted
Planetary A
Index for
January 17 to
23 is 5, 5,
18, 15, 12, 8,
and 6, with a
mean of 9.9.
Predicted
Planetary K
Index is 2, 2,
4, 4, 4, 3,
and 2, with a
mean of 3.
10.7-centimeter
flux is 106,
106, 110, 115,
125, 135, and
140, with a
mean of 119.6.
For more
information
concerning
shortwave
radio
propagation,
see www.arrl.org/propagation
and the ARRL
Technical
Information
Service web
page at www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an
explanation of
numbers used
in this
bulletin, see
www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
Information
and tutorials
on propagation
can be found
at http://k9la.us.
NNNN
/EX
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