[SFDXA] ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA


	

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042

ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP42

QST de W1AW

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42 ARLP042

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA November 1, 2024

To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP042

ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity increased this week. Average daily sunspot number went 
from 127.7 to 197.4 and average solar flux from 170.5 to 240.2.

Predicted solar flux is 270 on November 1-2, 265 and 260 on November 
3-4, 250 on November 5-7, 214, 195 and 182 on November 8-10, 172, 168, 
174 and 165 on November 11-14, and 162 on November 15-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 15, and 10 on November 1-4, 5 on 
November 5-15, then 5, 8, 5, 12, and 8 on November 16-20, and 5 on 
November 21 through December 5

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's 
Ionosphere - October 31, 2024 from OK1HH:

"We know only approximately what the Earth's ionosphere looked like 
between March 1755 and June 1766 thanks to observations of the Sun in 
Solar Cycle 1. But we do know what it looked like in Solar Cycle 19, 
which ran from April 1954 to October 1964. Although I was a novice radio 
amateur at the time, I can testify that the shortwave propagation 
conditions at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 (1958) were wonderful!

"As of December 2019, Solar Cycle 25 is in operation. It was supposed to 
be low, fortunately it is not. Its maximum is now underway, perhaps a 
second will follow next year. It is fabulous, judging by the above and 
the many interesting effects, including, for example, auroras. But 
unfortunately, not if we judge them by the current conditions of 
ionospheric shortwave propagation. An explanation of why this is now the 
case will surely be forthcoming - but perhaps Solar Cycle 26 will be 
underway.

"A week ago, as expected, large active regions and corresponding groups 
of spots appeared at the southeastern limb of the solar disk. We are now 
seeing them near the central meridian. This has increased the likelihood 
of Earth being hit by particles that will eject subsequent flares. It 
seems that not only these, but also disturbances in the geomagnetic 
field and then fluctuations in the ionospheric propagation field can be 
counted on with certainty in the coming days. Given that we have already 
seen simultaneously observed active regions on the Sun during the last 
solar rotation, presumably a 27-day recurrence will be a good aid to 
prediction."

How NASA tracks the Solar Cycles:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x98c2di 
<https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x98c2di>

The latest from the Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence Newsletter: 
https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMTc4NDUwJnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNTcwMzY2Mg/index.html>

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to 
k7ra at arrl.net <mailto:k7ra at arrl.net>. When reporting observations, don't 
forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see 
www.arrl.org/propagation 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMTc4NDUwJnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNTcwMzY2Mw/index.html> 
and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, 
www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMTc4NDUwJnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNTcwMzY2NA/index.html>. 
For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see 
www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMTc4NDUwJnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNTcwMzY2NQ/index.html>.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMTc4NDUwJnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNTcwMzY2Ng/index.html>. 


More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMTc4NDUwJnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNTcwMzY2Nw/index.html>.

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMTc4NDUwJnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNTcwMzY2OA/index.html>

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL 
bulletins are at www.arrl.org/bulletins 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMTc4NDUwJnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNTcwMzY2OQ/index.html>.

Sunspot numbers for October 24 through 30 2024 were 138, 157, 181, 198, 
288, 220, and 200, with a mean of 197.4. 10.7 cm flux was 196.6, 209.3, 
238.4, 246.2, 255.5, 265.6, and 269.8, with a mean of 240.2. Estimated 
planetary A indices were 13, 3, 14, 10, 17, 12, and 15, with a mean of 
12. Middle latitude A Index was 10, 2, 11, 8, 11, 10, and 10, with a 
mean of 8.9.

NNNN

/EX

	


	

ARRL® The National Association for Amateur Radio®

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