[SFDXA] CME impact and geomagnetic storm watch

Sun Nov 5 11:13:50 EST 2023

*CME IMPACT:*A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on*Nov. 5th at 0905 UT*, 
sparking a G2-class geomagnetic storm. This could be the early arrival 
of the full-halo CME shown below. But maybe not. We knew thatanother 
lesser CME 
<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/02nov23/cme2_anim_opt.gif>was 
preceding the halo, and this could be it. If so, the full halo CME is 
still coming and could intensify geomagnetic activity even more when it 
arrives later today.

*GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2):*NASA and NOAA now agree: A full halo CME 
is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field this weekend. Its arrival 
probably during the late hours of Nov. 5th could spark aG2 
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g2.jpg>-class geomagnetic storm with 
auroras in northern Europe, Canada and US states from New York to 
Oregon.*Aurora alerts:*SMS Text <https://spaceweatheralerts.com/>

The CME was hurled in our direction on Nov. 3rd bya complex eruption 
<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/03nov23/filamenteruption_opt.gif>of 
solar magnetic filaments. SOHO corographraphs recorded this movie of the 
cloud leaving the sun:

<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/03nov23/halocme.gif>

Not shown are two to three other CMEs, which left the sun just before 
and just after the halo event. Analysts had to untangle multiple CMEs to 
produce a forecast. To get a sense of the uncertainties, comparethe NASA 
model <https://spaceweather.com/images2023/03nov23/nasamodel.gif>tothe 
NOAA model 
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction>. 
Predicted arrival times range from 1200 UT on Nov. 5th to 0000 UT on 
Nov. 6th, with NASA favoring earlier, NOAA later.

*Solar wind*
speed:*493.7*km/sec
density:*44.80*protons/cm^3
more data:ACE 
<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-swepam-24-hour.gif>,DSCOVR 
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind>
Updated: Today at 0131 UT

*X-ray Solar Flares*
6-hr max:*M1*1143 UT Nov05
24-hr:*M1*1143 UTNov05
explanation <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html>|more 
data <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux>
Updated: Today at: 1335 UT

Daily Sun: 05 Nov 
23<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/05nov23/hmi1898.gif>
*Expand:*labels 
<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/05nov23/hmi1898.gif>|no labels 
<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/05nov23/hmi4096_blank.jpg>|Carrington 
<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/05nov23/hmi4096_blank_carrington.jpg>

All of these sunspots have stable magnetic fields that pose little 
threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

*Sunspot number: 95*
What is the sunspot number?
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html>Updated 03 Nov 2023

*Spotless Days
*Current Stretch: 0 days
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 04 Nov 2023

*Thermosphere Climate Index*
today: 19.37x10^10 WWarm
Max: 49.4x10^10WHot(10/1957)
Min: 2.05x10^10 WCold(02/2009)
explanation 
<https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/03/23/what-is-tci/>|*more 
data:*gfx 
<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/04nov23/TCI_Daily_NO_Power_Percentiles.png>,txt 
<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/04nov23/tci_info.txt>
Updated 04 Nov 2023

*The Radio Sun*
10.7 cm flux:*155*sfu
explanation <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Educational/2/2/5>|more data 
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>
Updated 05 Nov 2023

Cosmic RaysSolar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the 
number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from 
the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that 
cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the 
yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.
*
Oulu Neutron Counts*
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -3.3%Low
48-hr change: +0.3%
Max: +11.7%Very High(12/2009)
Min: -32.1%Very Low(06/1991)
explanation 
<https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/10/03/cosmic-rays-are-nearing-a-space-age-maximum/>|**more 
data <https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/>
Updated 05 Nov 2023 @ 0700 UT

<https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/>

Current Auroral Oval:

<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg>

Switch to:Europe,USA,New Zealand,Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation

*Planetary K-index*
Now:*Kp=6.00*storm
24-hr max:*Kp= 6.00*storm
explanation <https://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/kp.html>|more data
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index>

*Interplanetary Mag. Field*
B_total :*33.30*nT
B_z :*-10.16*nT*south*
more data:ACE 
<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-24-hour.gif>,DSCOVR 
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind>
Updated: Today at 0132 UT

Coronal Holes: 05 Nov 23

<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/05nov23/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg>
Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on Nov. 
7-8.Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds
The northern season for NLCs began on May 26th. The first clouds were 
detected inside the Arctic Circle by the NOAA 21 satellite. An 
instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP 
<https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/ozone-measuring-instrument-noaa-21-satellite-captures-its-first-images>) 
is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or 
PMCs). For the rest of the season, daily maps from NOAA 21 will be 
presented here:

<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/29aug23/noaa21.png>
*Updated: Aug. 29, 2023*

Each dot is a detected cloud. As the season progresses, these dots will 
multiply in number and shift in hue from blue to red as the brightness 
of the clouds intensifies.

What happened toNASA's AIM spacecraft <https://aim.hamptonu.edu/>, which 
has been monitoring NLCs since 2007? Earlier this year, the 
spacecraft'sbattery failed 
<https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2023/03/16/nasas-aim-mission-ends-operational-support/>. 
As a result AIM is offline, perhaps permanently. There may be some hope 
of a recovery as AIM's orbit precesses into full sunlight in 2024. Until 
then, we will maintain AIM's iconic "daily daisy," frozen at Feb. 28, 
2023, as a show of thanks for years of service and hope for future daisies:

<https://spaceweather.com/DAISY_PICS/current_daisy.png>

Switch view:Ross Ice Shelf,Antarctic Peninsula,East Antarctica,Polar

Updated Nov05

SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts 	

Updated at: 2023 Nov 04 2200 UTC

FLARE

0-24 hr

24-48 hr
CLASS M

25 %

25 %
CLASS X

05 %

05 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are 
given for three activity levels:active 
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>,minor storm 
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>,severe storm 
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>

Updated at: 2023 Nov 04 2200 UTC

Mid-latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr
ACTIVE

35 %

30 %
MINOR

25 %

35 %
SEVERE

10 %

20 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr
ACTIVE

15 %

10 %
MINOR

20 %

20 %
SEVERE

30 %

40 %

Spaceweather.com
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