CME IMPACT: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 5th at 0905 UT, sparking a G2-class geomagnetic storm. This could be the early arrival of the full-halo CME shown below. But maybe not. We knew that another lesser CMEwas preceding the halo, and this could be it. If so, the full halo CME is still coming and could intensify geomagnetic activity even more when it arrives later today.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): NASA and NOAA now agree: A full halo CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field this weekend. Its arrival probably during the late hours of Nov. 5th could spark a  G2-class geomagnetic storm with auroras in northern Europe, Canada and US states from New York to Oregon. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

The CME was hurled in our direction on Nov. 3rd by a complex eruption of solar magnetic filaments. SOHO corographraphs recorded this movie of the cloud leaving the sun:

Not shown are two to three other CMEs, which left the sun just before and just after the halo event. Analysts had to untangle multiple CMEs to produce a forecast. To get a sense of the uncertainties, compare the NASA model to the NOAA model. Predicted arrival times range from 1200 UT on Nov. 5th to 0000 UT on Nov. 6th, with NASA favoring earlier, NOAA later.

 
Solar wind
speed: 493.7 km/sec
density: 44.80 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0131 UT 
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 
1143 UT Nov05 
24-hr: M1  
1143 UT Nov05  
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1335 UT 
Daily Sun: 05 Nov 23 
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington
All of these sunspots have stable magnetic fields that pose little threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 95 
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 03 Nov 2023

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%) 
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 04 Nov 2023


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.37x1010 W Warm
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 04 Nov 2023

The Radio Sun 
10.7 cm flux: 155 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 05 Nov 2023

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -3.3% Low 
48-hr change: +0.3%
Max: +11.7% Very High 
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 05 Nov 2023 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval: 
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 6.00  storm
24-hr max: Kp= 6.00 
storm
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 33.30 nT
Bz: -10.16 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0132 UT 
Coronal Holes: 05 Nov 23

Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on Nov. 7-8. 
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds 
The northern season for NLCs began on May 26th. The first clouds were detected inside the Arctic Circle by the NOAA 21 satellite. An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). For the rest of the season, daily maps from NOAA 21 will be presented here:


Updated: Aug. 29, 2023

Each dot is a detected cloud. As the season progresses, these dots will multiply in number and shift in hue from blue to red as the brightness of the clouds intensifies.

What happened to NASA's AIM spacecraft, which has been monitoring NLCs since 2007? Earlier this year, the spacecraft's battery failed. As a result AIM is offline, perhaps permanently. There may be some hope of a recovery as AIM's orbit precesses into full sunlight in 2024. Until then, we will maintain AIM's iconic "daily daisy," frozen at Feb. 28, 2023, as a show of thanks for years of service and hope for future daisies:
Switch view:Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, Polar 
Updated Nov05 
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2023 Nov 04 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
25 %
25 %
CLASS X
05 %
05 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2023 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes 

0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
35 %
30 %
MINOR
25 %
35 %
SEVERE
10 %
20 %
High latitudes 

0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
10 %
MINOR
20 %
20 %
SEVERE
30 %
40 %
 

Spaceweather.com