[SFDXA] ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

[WILLIAM MARX]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032
> ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP32
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32  ARLP032
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  August 6, 2021
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP032
> ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> During this reporting week (July 29 through August 4) solar activity
> dropped into a sharp decline.
> 
> Sunspots were gone on July 28 through August 1, so average daily
> sunspot number dropped from 33.1 in last week's bulletin to 6 this
> week.
> 
> Average daily solar flux went from 83 to 74.8.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 74 and 73 on August 6 and 7, 75 on August 8
> to 10, 74 on August 11 and 12, 75 on August 3 to 14, 76 on August 15
> and 16, 75 and 74 on August 17 and 18, 72 on August 19 to 31, 74 on
> September 1, and 75 on September 2 to 10.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8 and 8 on August 6 to 8, then 5,
> 10 and 8 on August 9 to 11, 5 on August 12 to 15, then 10, 8 and 8
> on August 16 to 18, 5 on August 19 to 22, then 8, 12 and 8 on August
> 23 to 25, 5 on August 26 to 31, then 12 and 10 on September 1 and 2,
> and 5 on September 3 to 11.
> 
> "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 6 to 31, 2021
> 
> Geomagnetic field will be 
> Quiet on August 12 and 13, 20 and 21, 23, 28 
> Quiet to unsettled on August 7 to 9, 14, 19, 22, 25 to 27, 31 
> Quiet to active on August 6, 11, 15 to 18, 29 and 30 
> Unsettled to active August 10, 24 
> Active to disturbed Nothing predicted 
> 
> Remarks: 
> 
> - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
> - Next Thursday, on August 12th, I will not compile a forecast of
> the Earth's magnetic field activity, because I will climb the
> highest mountains of my country again.  But without the convenience
> of civilization as a computer.  F. K. Janda, OK1HH"
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:
> 
> "There was a 2 Meter sporadic-E opening August 4.
> 
> Ron, WZ1V (FN31) reported to me that he worked KA9CFD (EN40), K0TPP
> (EM48) and  W5LDA (EM15) around 2225z on FT8 via Es.  He said KA9CFD
> was loud.
> 
> 2 Meter Es is very rare in the month of August.
> 
> The last week of July there was a strong tropospheric opening on 2
> Meters from northeast Kansas.  I worked as far as KE8FD (EN80) and
> W3CP (EM74) on 2 Meter FT8.  I had a psk flag on 2 Meters from W3IP
> (FM19) over 1,500 kilometers away.
> 
> The Perseids Meteor shower is building in intensity with people now
> making morning MSK144 contacts on 2 Meters.  The peak is the night
> of August 11 and morning August 12.
> 
> More information here:
> 
> https://www.imo.net/viewing-the-perseid-meteor-shower-in-2021/  "
> 
> Ken Brown, N4SO on Alabama's Gulf Coast reports:
> 
> "On July 30, the EISN sunspot number was 0, and July 31 just above
> 0.
> 
> https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot
> 
> Based on EISN, Estimated International Sunspot Number and I was
> still able to log VE3TEN, KA3JOE and W2DLL in CANADA, PA and NY,
> nearly a straight line to the North East.
> 
> On July 31, I was still able to log K6FRC/B at 1454 UTC.  Weak but
> readable 339 RST.
> 
> On August 1, at 0400 UTC, 11 PM local I had that long list starting
> with N9TNY, W8EH, WA2SFT, WI4L, and K4JEE, in order EN51, EM79,
> EM76, EM74, and EM78.  Straight line North and Northeast."
> 
> From multiple sources:
> 
> "What follows is the text from a News Release from the High Altitude
> Observatory in Colorado regarding the revision of their Solar Cycle
> 25 Predictions.  The parts about Radio Propagation and the
> progression of Solar Cycle 24 are my own.
> 
> News Release - A revised prediction from the NASA High Altitude
> Observatory based at the University Of Colorado.  NASA
> Heliophysicists have released a revised prediction for Solar Cycle
> 25.  The report generated by Ricky Egeland a Solar Physicist working
> in the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group now calls for the peak of
> Solar Cycle 25 to top out at a value of 195 +/- 17 based upon the
> new scale for calculating Smoothed Sunspot Number.  For reference
> Solar Cycle 21 peaked at an SSN 233 (new scale) while Solar Cycle 23
> peaked at an SSN of 180 (new scale).
> 
> If this prediction holds up Ham Radio will see Excellent Worldwide F
> Layer Conditions on 10 Meters for several years around Solar Max.  6
> Meters conditions should be good in the Equinox Periods before and
> after Solar Max with consistent openings on Medium Haul Polar
> Routes.  6 Meter routes traversing the equator should experience
> consistent openings +/- 9 months from Solar Max."
> 
> For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an
> explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for July 29 through August 4, 2021 were 0, 0, 0, 0,
> 13, 15, and 14, with a mean of 6.  10.7 cm flux was 75.8, 75.5,
> 75.9, 74.9, 74.6, 75.9, and 70.8, with a mean of 74.8.  Estimated
> planetary A indices were 8, 6, 6, 4, 17, 10, and 5, with a mean of
> 8.  Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 6, 4, 13, 15, and 5, with a
> mean of 8.7.
> NNNN
> /EX