[SFDXA] EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE AND CME (UPDATED)

Wed Dec 9 09:54:39 EST 2020

> *EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE AND CME (UPDATED): *Sunspot AR2790 is more 
> potent than it looks. Yesterday (Dec. 7th @ 1632 UT), the relatively 
> small spot unleashed a C7-class 
> <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html> solar flare and 
> hurled a CME toward Earth. Extreme ultraviolet cameras onboard NASA's 
> Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the explosion:
>
> <https://spaceweather.com/images2020/07dec20/c7_anim_teal.gif>
>
> A pulse of X-rays from the flare ionized the top of Earth's 
> atmosphere, causing a minor shortwave radio blackout over South 
> America (map 
> <https://spaceweather.com/images2020/07dec20/blackoutmap.png>). 
> Affected frequencies were mainly below 10 MHz. Ironically, the flare 
> itself was a source of strong radio emissions. Ham radio operators may 
> have heard a 'roar' of solar static during the blackout.
>
> *UPDATE:* The explosion also hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) 
> toward Earth. Coronagraph images from the Solar and Heliospheric 
> Observatory (SOHO) show a halo CME 
> <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/halocmes.html> leaving the sun a 
> few hours after the flare:
>
>
> Note: The bright 'stars' to the right of the sun are Mercury (top) and 
> Antares (bottom)
>
> NOAA analysts have modeled the storm cloud; their results confirm that 
> it will likely reach Earth during the second half of Dec. 9th. En 
> route to our planet, the CME will scoop up some slower-moving material 
> from an unrelated solar wind stream. The combined impact could spark 
> geomagnetic storms as strong as category G3 
> <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g3.jpg>, although lesser G1 
> <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g1.jpg>- to G2 
> <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g2.jpg>-class storms are more likely.
>
> This is NOT a major space weather event. But after 3 years of 
> uber-quiet Solar Minimum, it is noteworthy. If a strong geomagnetic 
> storm materializes, auroras could be sighted in northern-tier US 
> states from Maine to Montana to Washington. Stay tuned! *Aurora 
> alerts:* SMS Text <https://spaceweatheralerts.com/>.
>
>
> *Solar wind*
> speed: *358.8 *km/sec
> density: *7.9 *protons/cm^3
> more data: ACE 
> <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-swepam-24-hour.gif>, 
> DSCOVR <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind>
> Updated: Today at 0130 UT
>
> *X-ray Solar Flares*
> 6-hr max: *B3 *0053 UT Dec09
> 24-hr: *B3 *0053 UT Dec09
> explanation <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html> | 
> more data 
> <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux-dynamic-plot>
> Updated: Today at: 0135 UT
>
> Daily Sun: 08 Dec 
> 20<https://spaceweather.com/images2020/08dec20/hmi1898.gif>
>
> Sunspot AR2790 is more potent than it looks. Yesterday, the relatively 
> small spot unleashed a C7-class 
> <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html> solar flare and 
> hurled a CME toward Earth. Credit: SDO/HMI
>
> *Sunspot number: 35 *
> What is the sunspot number?
> <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html>Updated 07 Dec 2020
>
> *Spotless Days
> *Current Stretch: 0 days
> 2020 total: 206 days (60%)
> 2019 total: 281 days (77%)
> 2018 total: 221 days (61%)
> 2017 total: 104 days (28%)
> 2016 total: 32 days (9%)
> 2015 total: 0 days (0%)
> 2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
> 2013 total: 0 days (0%)
> 2012 total: 0 days (0%)
> 2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
> 2010 total: 51 days (14%)
> 2009 total: 260 days (71%)
> 2008 total: 268 days (73%)
> 2007 total: 152 days (42%)
> 2006 total: 70 days (19%)
> Updated 08 Dec 2020
>
> *Thermosphere Climate Index*
> today: 6.08x10^10 WCold
> Max: 49.4x10^10 W Hot (10/1957)
> Min: 2.05x10^10 W Cold (02/2009)
> explanation 
> <https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/> | 
> *more data:* gfx 
> <https://spaceweather.com/images2020/08dec20/TCI_Daily_NO_Power_Percentiles.png>, 
> txt <https://spaceweather.com/images2020/08dec20/tci_info.txt>
> Updated 08 Dec 2020
>
> *The Radio Sun*

> 10.7 cm flux: *90 *sfu
> explanation <https://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/2/5> | more data 
> <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-10-cm-radio-flux.gif>
> Updated 08 Dec 2020
>
> Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is 
> weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts 
> from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show 
> that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.
> *
> Oulu Neutron Counts*
> Percentages of the Space Age average:
> today: +8.6% High
> 48-hr change: +0.6%
> Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
> Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
> explanation 
> <https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/10/03/cosmic-rays-are-nearing-a-space-age-maximum/> |**more 
> data <https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/>
> Updated 08 Dec 2020 @ 1700 UT
>
> <https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/>
>
> Current Auroral Oval:
>
> <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg>
>
> Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
> Credit: NOAA/Ovation
>
> *Planetary K-index*
> Now: *Kp= 1 *quiet
> 24-hr max: *Kp= 2 *quiet
> explanation <https://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/kp.html> | more data
> <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index>
>
> *Interplanetary Mag. Field*
> B_total : *5.3 *nT
> B_z : *-2.7 *nT *south *
> more data: ACE 
> <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-24-hour.gif>, DSCOVR 
> <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind>
> Updated: Today at 0130 UT
>
> Coronal Holes: 08 Dec 20
>
> <https://spaceweather.com/images2020/08dec20/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg>
> Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole could reach Earth on Dec. 
> 9-10. Credit: SDO/AIA
>
> Noctilucent Clouds The northern-hemisphere season for noctilucent 
> clouds has ended. The southern season begins in November. Between now 
> and then, Earth has no noctilucent clouds.
>
> <https://spaceweather.com/DAISY_PICS/current_daisy.png>
>
> Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
>
> Updated at:
>
> SPACE WEATHER
> NOAA Forecasts 	
>
> Updated at: 2020 Dec 08 2200 UTC
>
> FLARE
> 	
> 0-24 hr
> 	
> 24-48 hr
> CLASS M
> 	
> 01 %
> 	
> 01 %
> CLASS X
> 	
> 01 %
> 	
> 01 %
>
> Geomagnetic Storms:
> Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field 
> are given for three activity levels: active 
> <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>, minor storm 
> <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>, severe storm 
> <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>
>
> Updated at: 2020 Dec 08 2200 UTC
>
> Mid-latitudes
>
> 	
> 0-24 hr
> 	
> 24-48 hr
> ACTIVE
> 	
> 40 %
> 	
> 35 %
> MINOR
> 	
> 25 %
> 	
> 30 %
> SEVERE
> 	
> 05 %
> 	
> 10 %
>
> High latitudes
>
> 	
> 0-24 hr
> 	
> 24-48 hr
> ACTIVE
> 	
> 10 %
> 	
> 10 %
> MINOR
> 	
> 20 %
> 	
> 20 %
> SEVERE
> 	
> 60 %
> 	
> 65 %
>
> 	
>
>
> https://spaceweather.com
>

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