[SFDXA] ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

[Bmarx@bellsouth.net]

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
> ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP47
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47  ARLP047
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  November 22, 2019
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP047
> ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> We have not seen any sunspots since November 2, and at that time
> they were only visible for two days, and prior to that no sunspots
> since October 2.
> 
> According to Spaceweather.com, that recent sunspot, though very
> short lived, was a new Solar Cycle 25 spot:
> 
> https://bit.ly/2KJ7cyy
> 
> Average daily solar flux this week dipped slightly from 70.3 to
> 69.9. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet, with average daily
> planetary A index receding marginally from 4 to 3.6, and average
> mid-latitude A index going from 3 to 2.3.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 70 on November 22-23, 68 on November 24 then
> 67 on November 25-28, 69 on November 29 through December 8, 70 on
> December 9-22, and then 69 on December 23 through January 4 and 70
> on January 5.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 16, 10 and 8 on November 22-24, 5 on
> November 25 through December 12, 6 on December 13, 5 on December
> 14-15, then 8, 15, 20, 18 and 10 on December 16-20, 8 on December
> 21-23, and 5 on December 24 to January 4.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 22 til
> December 17, 2019 from OK1HH.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on: November 29-30, December 1, 10-16 
> Quiet to unsettled on: November 27-28, December 2, 7-9, 17
> Quiet to active on: November (25-26,) December 3-6
> Unsettled to active on: November 23 (-24) 
> Active to disturbed: November (22)
> 
> "Solar wind will intensify on: November 22-24, (25-26) December (3-9,
> 13-14,) 16-17.
> 
> "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."
> 
> ND4DX shared:
> 
> "Your comment of how amazing long distant contacts are still
> possible with present conditions brought back memories of the VP6DX
> expedition to Ducie Island 11 years ago during another solar minimum, I
> was able to work them SSB on all phone bands, 80-10 w/100w mobile
> with hustler/hamsticks. I'll bet if I looked through the log at
> other solar minimums I'd see similar results. So I think all this
> worry folks have over the solar minimum is all nonfounded, sure the
> sunspots make it easier. But now it is even more challenging and
> interesting with pretty much the same results as I've found now with
> the 100w and a 43' vertical, and NO FT8.
> 
> "73 es DX Fred ND4DX."
> 
> David P. Moore sent two articles on solar physics:
> 
> https://bit.ly/2KL6sJk
> 
> https://bit.ly/2XzVBqS
> 
> Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW gives us a timely forecast:
> 
> https://youtu.be/WrIsipdOfF0
> 
> Here is an interesting resource from Japan, showing daily sunspot
> data beginning in 1929:
> 
> https://solarwww.mtk.nao.ac.jp/en/db_sunspot.html
> 
> This weekend is the CW portion of the CQ Worldwide DX Contest:
> 
> https://www.cqww.com/
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at.
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for November 14 through 20, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
> 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.9, 70, 69.7, 70.1,
> 70.4, 69.2, and 70.2, with a mean of 69.9. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 4, 4, 6, 5, 2, 2, and 2, with a mean of 3.6. Middle
> latitude A index was 3, 2, 5, 3, 1, 1, and 1, with a mean of 2.3.
> NNNN
> /EX