[SFDXA] Bougainville: Will it become the world's next country?

[Bill]

 From Tony N2MFT:
Subject: Bougainville: Will it become the world's next country?

21 November 2019
An island group that's part of Papua New Guinea is about to vote on 
independence. And, if the poll goes as expected, Bougainville could 
become the world's next country.
The islands' history includes colonial exploitation, attempts at 
independence, a nine-year war and a gradual peace process.
On Saturday, a new chapter will be written, when 207,000 people begin 
voting on whether they want greater autonomy or independence.
Observers expect up to three-quarters to opt for independence - but the 
poll will just be a first step.


    https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/12FD9/production/_109758777_59ccc744-44a1-4ca8-8c49-3498240d34f6.jpg


    Why independence?

The islands were named after an 18th Century French explorer and became 
part of a German colony, German New Guinea, at the end of the 19th Century.
During World War One, Australia took control and remained in charge 
until 1975 (with a brief period of Japanese control during World War Two).
While under colonial control, Bougainville - current population 300,000 
- was always an outpost.
The Germans' first administrative centre was not established until 1905 
- 21 years after their rule began.
And, according to referendum literature 
<http://bougainville-referendum.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/the_bougainville_referendum_low_res_1.pdf>, 
"some parts of mountainous central and northern Bougainville had little 
contact with either churches or the colonial regime until after World 
War Two".
Getty

https://news.files.bbci.co.uk/include/idt2/assets/7188c407-43c2-4093-9521-72b091093122
Bougainville timeline

  *
    *1975*province of newly independent PNG
  *
    *1988*separatist war with PNG breaks out
  *
    *1997*international mediation ends war
  *
    *2000*peace agreement sets 2020 deadline for independence poll
  *
    *2019*Bougainville independence referendum

When Papua New Guinea was granted independence in 1975, Bougainville 
became a province, even though there was little enthusiasm for it.
In fact, there was even a declaration of independence shortly before PNG 
was formed - an attempt to create the "Republic of the North Solomons". 
However it was ignored by both Australia and PNG.
The declaration was the manifestation of a Bougainville identity which 
developed during the 20th Century. Initially a response to plantation 
colonialism, it developed thanks to perceived racism and economic 
exploitation.
The primary marker of that identity was dark skin colour - most 
Bougainvilleans have darker skin than most, though not all, people from 
elsewhere in PNG.
After the failed independence declaration, discontent simmered and in 
1988 a nine-year separatist war began.
Estimates of the number of people killed range from 4,000 to 20,000 - 
between 3 and 13% of the islands' population at the start of the war.
The fighting came to an end in 1997 with help from international 
mediators. The result was the Bougainville Peace Agreement (BPA), the 
creation in 2005 of the Autonomous Bougainville Government 
<http://www.abg.gov.pg/>, and the promise of a non-binding referendum on 
independence.


    So what options are there?

On the ballot, people will have two options: greater autonomy or 
independence.
The expectation is that the province will vote in favour of independence 
- but it's not a given, so there are three possible outcomes:

  * People vote for more autonomy, turning down the independence option.
    In that case, Bougainville would stay part of PNG and details would
    be worked out
  * People vote for independence and PNG accepts the vote. The province
    would then transition to become a sovereign country
  * People vote for independence but PNG does not accept the outcome or
    tries to delay any further steps. This might lead to a new crisis
    and fresh conflict

Voting will be held between 23 November and 7 December and results are 
expected later in December.
The Referendum Commission is headed by former Irish Prime Minister 
Bertie Ahern, who helped to negotiate 1998 Good Friday Agreement as part 
of the Northern Ireland peace process.
"There is a palpable pride that the eyes of the world are watching," Mr 
Ahern wrote this week. 
<https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2019/nov/21/peace-agreements-normally-fail-within-five-years-bougainville-is-a-lesson-to-us-all> 
"I believe the process will be a credible one, free of the fear and 
intimidation once wrought by weapons of war."
Image copyright BOUGAINVILLE REFERENDUM COMMISSION Image caption A 
poster encouraging Bougainvilleans to register to vote


    What does Papua New Guinea say?

The central government has previously withheld funding for the 
referendum process, and its preference is for the region to remain 
within the country.
In October, new Prime Minister James Marape reiterated that the vote was 
non-binding 
<https://postcourier.com.pg/marape-congratulates-bvilleans-on-the-eve-of-referendum/>, 
and that the result would be "deliberated upon" by the governments of 
PNG and Bougainville.
So why does PNG want Bougainville to stay?
For one, Bougainville is rich in natural resources. While the war 
brought much of the copper and gold mining operations to a halt, the 
province used to be one of PNG's richest before the war.
The other worry is that it might set a precedent. If Bougainville gets 
independence, other PNG provinces (there are more than 20) could also up 
their demands for greater autonomy - or possibly secession.


    Is Bougainville ready for independence?

The new country - should it happen - would be small, with a land mass of 
less than 10,000 square kilometres (slightly larger than Cyprus, and 
slightly smaller than Lebanon).
Likewise, its population would be one of the world's smallest - slightly 
smaller than Pacific neighbour Vanuatu, and slightly bigger than Barbados.
But according to research by Australia's Lowy Institute, Bougainville 
achieving self-reliance would at best be years away.
Image copyright AFP
The country is rich in natural resources - especially copper, which has 
been extracted on a large scale since the 1960s under Australian 
administration.
But mining operations have been crippled by the war - and the 
distribution of revenue was one of the factors behind the conflict.
One estimate cited by the Lowy Institute 
<https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/bougainville-referendum-and-beyond> 
says Bougainville would only have 56% of the revenue needed to be 
self-reliant.


    What are other countries doing?

Australia, the closest wealthy country, is Bougainville's biggest donor 
and was involved in the mediation that ended the fighting.
It says it will accept "any settlement negotiated", but most 
Bougainvilleans believe that Australia opposes independence.
 From further afield, the US and China are also watching the 
developments closely.
China is thought to already have sent a delegation to look at investing 
in Bougainville, including a new port. Beijing has recently increased 
its efforts to boost ties with island nations in the Pacific, 
establishing diplomatic ties with the Solomon Islands and Kiribati 
<https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49766262>.
Meanwhile, the US - along with Australia, New Zealand, and Japan 
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-papua-bougainville-china/u-s-edges-china-out-of-race-to-fund-bougainville-independence-vote-idUSKBN1WV085> 
- have provided funds to help with the referendum.