[SFDXA] [DCARC] Hurricane path according to the Navy

[Kai]

Hi Bill,
The 20 m and 40 m phone stations should be active after 5 PM Eastern Time.
For a reliable forecast:
The "beer bottle hanging on a string" should work.
Beer bottle steady: calm weather
Beer bottle wet: it's raining
Beer bottle swinging: it's windy
Beer bottle broken at the neck and swinging wildly: hurricane
Beer bottle missing: someone is enjoying a brew!
73,
Kai, KE4PT


On 8/31/2019 14:14, billbass at gmail wrote:
> Hi Hi! From the pub😆.
>
> Well here is a transplanted Davie Ham and I am up here near Raleigh North Carolina and that sucker is heading my way it looks like ! Yikes fellas yikes!
>
> Hey does anybody know when the hurricane on 14.325 will be activated?
>
> Bill
> K4TF
>
>> On Aug 31, 2019, at 11:09 AM, Richard gillingham <rmoodyg at bellsouth.net> wrote:
>>
>> Hence, we should forecast the weather from the pub more often...
>> 73Gil, W1RG
>>     On Saturday, August 31, 2019, 10:47:12 AM EDT, Randy N4QV <wil9926 at bellsouth.net> wrote:
>>
>> Thanks Kai,
>>
>> We have all been watching this closely.  At the Falcon Pub We all agreed
>> that the BEST scenario is that it stays at sea.. wishful thinking at it's
>> best!
>>
>> This of course was, at the time, highly unlikely!  However, today it looks
>> much more likely and we are all hoping that the trend continues!
>>
>> Randy
>> N4QV
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Kai
>> Sent: Saturday, August 31, 2019 9:15 AM
>> To: DCARC ; SFDXA Reflector
>> Subject: [SFDXA] Hurricane path according to the Navy
>>
>> I have been tracking Dorian using this Navy site:
>>    https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
>> I figure that the Navy have some expensive assets to protect, so they have a
>> special interest in getting it right.
>>
>> This seems to be one of the few sites that dares to plot an actual predicted
>> path rather than just a "cone" and a lot of mumbo-jumbo rhetoric, and the
>> confusion of multiple model paths. The trend of that Navy-generated path
>> over
>> time tells a story.
>> Over the past several days I noticed that the part of the path towards the
>> west
>> has remained pretty stable, but the hook to the north has been migrating to
>> the
>> east.  If the trend continues, then Dorian will hook to the north over
>> water.
>> The 34 kt wind radii indicate the size of the storm, so we are not in the
>> clear.
>>
>> Click on the image to enlarge it. Another indicator is in the Table to the
>> right
>> side of the map image: the CPA (closest point of approach) to NOSC West Palm
>> Beach, for example, has been steadily increasing, and is now 59 nm.
>> No guaranties, (remember Andrew!).
>> There is a button marked "previous" which will bring up the previous map, so
>> you
>> can judge the trend.
>>
>> With best regards, stay safe!
>> Kai, KE4PT
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
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