[SFDXA] [DCARC] Hurricane path according to the Navy

[billbass@gmail]

Hi Hi! From the pub😆. 

Well here is a transplanted Davie Ham and I am up here near Raleigh North Carolina and that sucker is heading my way it looks like ! Yikes fellas yikes!

Hey does anybody know when the hurricane on 14.325 will be activated?

Bill
K4TF 

> On Aug 31, 2019, at 11:09 AM, Richard gillingham <rmoodyg at bellsouth.net> wrote:
> 
> Hence, we should forecast the weather from the pub more often... 
> 73Gil, W1RG
>    On Saturday, August 31, 2019, 10:47:12 AM EDT, Randy N4QV <wil9926 at bellsouth.net> wrote:  
> 
> Thanks Kai,
> 
> We have all been watching this closely.  At the Falcon Pub We all agreed 
> that the BEST scenario is that it stays at sea.. wishful thinking at it's 
> best!
> 
> This of course was, at the time, highly unlikely!  However, today it looks 
> much more likely and we are all hoping that the trend continues!
> 
> Randy
> N4QV
> 
> -----Original Message----- 
> From: Kai
> Sent: Saturday, August 31, 2019 9:15 AM
> To: DCARC ; SFDXA Reflector
> Subject: [SFDXA] Hurricane path according to the Navy
> 
> I have been tracking Dorian using this Navy site:
>   https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
> I figure that the Navy have some expensive assets to protect, so they have a
> special interest in getting it right.
> 
> This seems to be one of the few sites that dares to plot an actual predicted
> path rather than just a "cone" and a lot of mumbo-jumbo rhetoric, and the
> confusion of multiple model paths. The trend of that Navy-generated path 
> over
> time tells a story.
> Over the past several days I noticed that the part of the path towards the 
> west
> has remained pretty stable, but the hook to the north has been migrating to 
> the
> east.  If the trend continues, then Dorian will hook to the north over 
> water.
> The 34 kt wind radii indicate the size of the storm, so we are not in the 
> clear.
> 
> Click on the image to enlarge it. Another indicator is in the Table to the 
> right
> side of the map image: the CPA (closest point of approach) to NOSC West Palm
> Beach, for example, has been steadily increasing, and is now 59 nm.
> No guaranties, (remember Andrew!).
> There is a button marked "previous" which will bring up the previous map, so 
> you
> can judge the trend.
> 
> With best regards, stay safe!
> Kai, KE4PT
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
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