[SFDXA] Hurricane path according to the Navy

[Randy Shirley]

Thanks Kai,

We have all been watching this closely.  At the Falcon Pub We all agreed 
that the BEST scenario is that it stays at sea.. wishful thinking at it's 
best!

This of course was, at the time, highly unlikely!  However, today it looks 
much more likely and we are all hoping that the trend continues!

Randy
N4QV

-----Original Message----- 
From: Kai
Sent: Saturday, August 31, 2019 9:15 AM
To: DCARC ; SFDXA Reflector
Subject: [SFDXA] Hurricane path according to the Navy

I have been tracking Dorian using this Navy site:
  https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
I figure that the Navy have some expensive assets to protect, so they have a
special interest in getting it right.

This seems to be one of the few sites that dares to plot an actual predicted
path rather than just a "cone" and a lot of mumbo-jumbo rhetoric, and the
confusion of multiple model paths. The trend of that Navy-generated path 
over
time tells a story.
Over the past several days I noticed that the part of the path towards the 
west
has remained pretty stable, but the hook to the north has been migrating to 
the
east.  If the trend continues, then Dorian will hook to the north over 
water.
The 34 kt wind radii indicate the size of the storm, so we are not in the 
clear.

Click on the image to enlarge it. Another indicator is in the Table to the 
right
side of the map image: the CPA (closest point of approach) to NOSC West Palm
Beach, for example, has been steadily increasing, and is now 59 nm.
No guaranties, (remember Andrew!).
There is a button marked "previous" which will bring up the previous map, so 
you
can judge the trend.

With best regards, stay safe!
Kai, KE4PT





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