[SFDXA] Hurricane path according to the Navy

Kai k.siwiak at ieee.org
Sat Aug 31 09:15:02 EDT 2019


I have been tracking Dorian using this Navy site:
  https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
I figure that the Navy have some expensive assets to protect, so they have a 
special interest in getting it right.

This seems to be one of the few sites that dares to plot an actual predicted 
path rather than just a "cone" and a lot of mumbo-jumbo rhetoric, and the 
confusion of multiple model paths. The trend of that Navy-generated path over 
time tells a story.
Over the past several days I noticed that the part of the path towards the west 
has remained pretty stable, but the hook to the north has been migrating to the 
east.  If the trend continues, then Dorian will hook to the north over water. 
The 34 kt wind radii indicate the size of the storm, so we are not in the clear.

Click on the image to enlarge it. Another indicator is in the Table to the right 
side of the map image: the CPA (closest point of approach) to NOSC West Palm 
Beach, for example, has been steadily increasing, and is now 59 nm.
No guaranties, (remember Andrew!).
There is a button marked "previous" which will bring up the previous map, so you 
can judge the trend.

With best regards, stay safe!
Kai, KE4PT







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