[SFDXA] W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-285

[Bill]

> W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to 
> the point.
>
> Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any 
> previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally 
> gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th 
> century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with 
> a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate 
> anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.
>
> On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the 
> smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I 
> also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.
>
> #285 Issued Friday October 12, 2018 at 1500 UTC
>
> Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-
>
> Solar activity was very low.
>
> The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.1 70.9 70.6
>
> There had been 1 day with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number 
> (SFI) at 70 or higher.
>
> The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.
>
> There had been 7 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot 
> number (SSN) of 0.
>
> In 2018 there had been 165 days with an official daily sunspot number 
> (DSSN) of 0.
>
> There had been 1 newly risen sunspot group #2724 located near S08E59 
> with a simple alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing very small 
> B class solar flares.
>
> The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at 
> an unsettled to a quiet geomagnetic condition of 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 1.
>
> The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values 
> ranged between 39 & 3.
>
> The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index 
> (Dst) ranged between -13 & -6.
>
> The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 
> 510 & 445 km/s.
>
> Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
>
> HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 12, 2018- improvement.
>
> HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 13, 2018- steady.
>
> HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 14, 2018- minor 
> deterioration.
>
> Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-
>
> 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night 
> and S1-3 at day,
>
> 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at 
> night and S4-7 at day,
>
> 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- 
> S0 at night and S3-4 at day,
>
> 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
>
> 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
>
> 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
>
> We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave 
> propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions 
> are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring 
> equinox.
>
> Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-
>
> 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night 
> and S1-3 at day,
>
> 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at 
> night and S4-7 at day,
>
> 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- 
> S0 at night and S3-4 at day,
>
> 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
>
> 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
>
> 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
>
> We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave 
> propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions 
> are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring 
> equinox.
>
> THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, 
> GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN 
> EARTH’S IONOSPHERE.
>
> This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the 
> SIGINT_CAP
> HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in 
> the
> late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the 
> general
> public. It does outperform VOA CAP.
>
> And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based 
> on the
> SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my 
> location in
> the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.
>
> I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted 
> radio
> receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast 
> manually if
> and when necessary.
>
> And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent 
> of the
> globe.
>
> The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 
> watts
> and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
>
> The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
> watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
>
> The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 
> watts
> and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
>
> The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 
> watts
> and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
>
> The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
> 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
> antenna.
>
> Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
> propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and 
> applicable
> by the average radio enthusiast.
>
> Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
> during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed 
> during
> the summer and winter solstices.
>
> Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
> sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
> ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes 
> in the
> maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
> critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.
>
> The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
> absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
> propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.
>
> Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
> static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner 
> and
> mostly bad.
>
> Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF 
> radio
> wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.
>
> Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are 
> impacted in a
> negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
> (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
> geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
> greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
> the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) 
> via D
> layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
> elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic 
> proton
> flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
>
> Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
> negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) 
> along a
> particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number 
> and
> also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
> greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater 
> than B0)
> background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton 
> flux
> at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
>
> GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO 
> ACTUAL
> HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
>
> NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
> intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
> interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
> Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
> allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
>
> All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in 
> order to
> see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
> something that happens rarely.
>
> 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
>
> 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
>
> 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable 
> formation
> of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
>
> 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
> consecutively are best.
>
> 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
> than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
>
> 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
>
> 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
> consecutively, greater than C1 best.
>
> 8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
>
> 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
> indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
> absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
> signals, when the Kp is above 3.
>
> 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the 
> recovery
> time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring 
> current. A
> positive number is best.
>
> Standard Disclaimer-
>
> Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
> Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
> institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
> forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government 
> using
> taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
>
> However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
> public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
> daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is 
> copyrighted ©
> 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
>
> Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio 
> wave
> propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
> give me credit for it.
>
> Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
> science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
> educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human 
> error
> and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
>