[SFDXA] ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Mar 1 15:35:40 EST 2013

> 
> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009
> ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP09
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  March 1, 2013
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP009
> ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Solar and geomagnetic activity over the past week (Thursday through
> Wednesday, February 21-27) declined, with the average daily sunspot
> number dropping nearly 21 points to 57.7. Average daily solar flux
> softened by 4.7 points to 100.9, and average daily planetary A index
> declined 6.4 points to 5.1. This isn't much of a change, but
> geomagnetic activity was low already, and this is even lower.
> 
> Predicted solar flux for the near term is 110 on March 1-3, 105 on
> March 4-7, 100 on March 8, 95 on March 9-14, 100 on March 15-16, 105
> on March 17, and 110 on March 18-20. Solar flux then reaches a peak
> of 120 on March 25-27, and on March 28 through April 6 maintains an
> average around 113.
> 
> The predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 March 1-2, 5 on March
> 3-4, 8 on March 5, 7 on March 6-7, 5 on March 8-10, 7 on March
> 11-12, and 5 on March 13-20.
> 
> OK1HH predicts quiet to active geomagnetic conditions on March 1,
> mostly quite March 2, quiet to unsettled March 3, quiet on March 4,
> mostly quiet March 5, quiet to unsettled March 6, quiet to active
> March 7, quiet on March 8, mostly quiet March 9-10, quiet to active
> March 11-12, quiet to unsettled March 13-16, mostly quiet March
> 17-18, quiet to unsettled March 19-21, active to disturbed March 22
> and quiet on March 23-24.
> 
> It is interesting to note that OK1HH predicts active to disturbed
> conditions on March 22, but NOAA and USAF predict a benign planetary
> A index of only 5 on that date.
> 
> This weekend is the ARRL International Phone DX Contest, from March
> 2, 0000z to March 3, 2400z. If you are on the West Coast, and use
> Pacific Standard Time, that would begin at 4:00 PM on Friday, ending
> at 4:00 PM on Sunday. For more info, check
> http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx.
> 
> With February ended, let's look at some updated averages.  Our most
> recent 3-month moving average does not impress. The three months
> centered on January 2013 had an average daily sunspot number of
> 73.6. This is below every three-month moving average for last year,
> except the three months centered on March 2012, which was 71.2. The
> 3-month moving averages of daily sunspot numbers centered on January
> 2012 through January 2013 were 83.3, 73.7, 71.2, 87.3, 91.5, 96.5,
> 91.9, 89.9, 81.2, 82.3, 74.4, 82.8 and 73.6.
> 
> Jim Henderson, KF7E sent a link to an impressive NASA clip of solar
> activity from last July. Note that you can set this video to HD
> resolution, and it looks great on full screen. See it at
> http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130226.html.
> 
> Also check out the photo gallery of solar events at
> http://news.cnet.com/2300-11386_3-10015988.html and note the
> dramatic composite image number 4.
> 
> Walt Knodle, W7VS sent an article about artificial ionosphere
> produced by the HAARP facility in Alaska with a 3.6 megawatt signal
> on 69 meters.  Note that they are only able to produce the effect
> for 45 seconds.  Read about it at
> http://phys.org/news/2013-02-scientists-densest-artificial-ionospheric-plasma.html.
> 
> I think the Wikipedia page at
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Frequency_Active_Auroral_Research_Program
> gives a pretty good overview of the HAARP project.
> 
> Also the September 1996 issue of QST has a nice article by K3NS
> titled, "The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program."  ARRL
> members can find and download it from the ARRL website with a search
> at http://www.arrl.org/arrl-periodicals-archive-search.
> 
> Jim Smith, K3RTU operated on HF CW from Ridley Creek State Park in
> Southeast Pennsylvania (FM29) on February 25. He wrote, "I hooked up
> with EA8BVP in the Canary Islands. 'Bal' EA8BVP was using a FT-817
> and a vertical, and I was using my FT-817 and my trusty Buddistick
> vertical. This CW QSO took place early in the afternoon on 18.086
> MHz. I had been trying to make a contact on 20 meters and was having
> no luck so I QSYed to 17 meters and almost within minutes heard
> EA8BVP calling CQ. Both of our signal levels were S4 to S5. I
> frequently operate on 17 meter CW while out backpacking and more
> often than not it provides me with good long distance contacts."
> 
> It looks like the path from the park to the Canary Islands would be
> good in the early afternoon, with the best 17 meter signals that day
> from 1200-2200 UTC. 17 meters does look like a better bet, with 20
> meters not catching up until after 2000 UTC.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good
> information and tutorials on propagation at
> http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for February 21 through 27 were 75, 79, 56, 25, 59,
> 49, and 61, with a mean of 57.7. 10.7 cm flux was 108.5, 107, 99.6,
> 94.9, 95.4, 98.7, and 102, with a mean of 100.9. Estimated planetary
> A indices were 6, 9, 6, 3, 3, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.1.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 9, 6, 2, 3, 4, and 4, with
> a mean of 4.7.
> NNNN
> /EX