[SFDXA] ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

[William Marx]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008
> ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP08
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8  ARLP008
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  February 22, 2013
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP008
> ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers over the past seven days, February
> 14-20, rose modestly by 27 points to 78.3. Average daily solar flux
> was up marginally, only 1.6 points to 105.6. Geomagnetic indices
> rose also, with the planetary A index from 5.6 to 6.4, and the
> middle latitude A index from 5.1 to 6. This is compared to the
> previous seven days, February 7-13 reported in last week's bulletin.
> 
> There was a more substantial rise in both solar flux and sunspot
> numbers for a recent three days, at 104.7, 112.4 and 113.5 for solar
> flux, and 92, 117 and 106 for sunspot numbers. But that turned
> around when the sunspot number dropped from 106 to 75 on Thursday,
> February 21 and solar flux declined from 113.5 to 108.5.
> 
> The predicted solar flux is 105 on February 22-23, 100 on February
> 24, 95 on February 25-26, 100, 105 and 110 on February 27 through
> March 1, 100 on March 2-3, 95 on March 4-14, 100 on March 15-16, 115
> on March 17, and 120 on March 18-20, which represents a peak for the
> next 45 days.
> 
> The predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 22, 10 on February
> 23, 8 on February 24, 5 on February 25-28, 10 and 8 on March 1-2, 5
> on March 3-10, 7 on March 11-12, and 5 on March 13-27.
> 
> Over the next month we can look forward to improving HF conditions
> as we progress toward the Spring Equinox, which occurs on Wednesday,
> March 20 at 1102z.
> 
> Using a propagation prediction program such as W6ELprop gives us a
> rough idea of what the seasonal improvement might be. Running two
> instances of the program simultaneously, once for February 21 and
> the other on March 21, but with the same solar flux (I used 107)
> allows me to flip back and forth between the results. I did one for
> Seattle to Japan, and the 15 meter opening from 2200z to 0030z on
> February 21 shows up as a 2130-0500z opening on March 21. Similarly,
> a 17 meter opening from 2130-0230z on February 21 stretches to
> 2030-0500z on March 21.
> 
> OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field as quiet to active on February
> 22, active to disturbed on February 23, mostly quiet February 24-25,
> quiet on February 26-28, quiet to unsettled March 1, quiet to active
> March 2, mostly quiet March 3, quiet to unsettled March 4, quiet
> March 5-6, mostly quiet March 7-8, quiet March 9, and quiet to
> active March 10.
> 
> Several news articles, such as
> http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2013/02/20/NASA-instrument-sees-giant-sunspot-forming/UPI-80691361403797/
> and
> http://www.science20.com/news_articles/giant_sun_spot_size_6_earths_grows_48_hours-104269
> mentioned a huge growing sunspot group 1678 that might spit out
> solar flares.  But this spot is way over on the western horizon
> (yes, the right side is referred to as "west" on the Sun) and about
> to slip away from view.  It is not geo-effective, which it would be
> if it appeared in the center of the visible solar disc.
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas (where I was born!) has long
> enjoyed working 6 meter E-skip and even DX using very modest and
> even compromised antennas. Jon reported on February 16: "Julian,
> XE2JS DL68 had a nice 6 meter Es opening to the Midwest Saturday
> evening (February 17 UTC). I worked Julian while I was mobile on
> highway 40 west of Lawrence, KS EM28 with 58 to 59 signals at 0135
> UTC. My 6 meter mobile antenna is a 2 meter 5/8 mag. mount whip
> (quarter-wave on 6 meters). Saw ZL1RS worked TI5/N5BEK earlier at
> 2254 UTC February 16."
> 
> Yes, Jon feeds that 2 meter whip directly on 6 meters, no change in
> loading or any modification. That distance between him and XE2JS is
> a little less than 1,000 miles.
> 
> On February 19, Jon reported: "The whip I currently use has a 1.1 to
> 1 SWR, as-is on 6 meters. Some 2 meter mag antennas don't match well
> on 6 and may need to be trimmed. ZL1RS later worked KD5PBR, N5DG,
> NW0W and a few other stations on 6 meters around 0230 UTC on Feb.
> 17. Likely an Es link on to TEP. (Jon means sporadic-E propagation
> linked to trans-equatorial propagation. See
> http://www.ips.gov.au/Category/Educational/Other%20Topics/Radio%20Communication/Transequatorial.pdf
> or
> http://www.amateur-radio-wiki.net/index.php?title=Trans-Equatorial_Propagation
> for info on TEP).
> 
> On February 21 Jon wrote, "Even better, I heard ZL1RS CW on February
> 20 at 2300 UTC on 50.087 MHz, about a 339 RST. This was on an attic
> dipole. I am sure I could have worked him with better antenna."
> 
> Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote on February
> 17: "I had limited time due to working 1700Z-0230Z over the weekend,
> but found conditions at least on 80, 15 and 10 meters to be
> excellent during the ARRL CW DX contest.
> 
> "In just a few hours on 80 meters around 0140-0440Z Saturday the
> February 16 and 0230-0400Z Sunday, I managed to work 270 QSOs and 67
> DXCC countries with a 1/4 wave ground plane. Conditions were overall
> the best to Europe I can ever remember in a contest. I was able to
> run a steady stream of callers at times, the best I have ever done
> on 80. I didn't make any QSOs with central Asia, but the well
> equipped big guns did work that area. I was called by C4N in Cyprus
> with a huge signal, and also a 4Z5 (Israel), and A65BP (United Arab
> Emirates). Russians were generally somewhat weaker than western
> Europe, but many had good signals all the way to the UA4 area. Big
> guns RU1A and RL3A were well over S9! ZS1EL also called me as well
> as about 3 or 4 five-watt European stations. At least 3 PY stations
> also called in from southern Brazil. The omni-directional antenna
> does have a few advantages. Activity from Europe was very good even
> the second night when traditionally it is very slow. I also noticed
> that some far western USA stations were working Europe as well.
> 
> "10 meters was very interesting with marginal conditions to Europe
> Saturday, but OH, LY, YL, and SM were logged. There were a few loud
> signals from LZ, F, and EA. Stations in the Caribbean at the same
> time were very loud as was CR2X, and Africans 6V7S, CR3A, 3V8BB, and
> EA9EU all had very good signals. 15 meters around 1530Z was wide
> open to Europe with booming signals. Solar flux was right around
> 100.
> 
> "Sunday, I arrived at the perfect time around 1400Z when 10 meters
> was just opening to Europe. East of Poland, propagation was almost
> nil except for a weak R7MM, and about 3 weak Ukrainians, but I ran a
> big pile-up with a huge number of Germans logged and strong signals
> even from SM and LA. All of Europe east of Poland had good
> conditions to here in West Virginia at least thru 1510Z when I had
> to QRT. Conditions were better than would be expected with a solar
> flux of only 103 and K index of 2-3, simply amazing that Europe was
> booming in."
> 
> On February 19 Jeff wrote: "Last night February 18 (but February 19
> based on universal time), T46RRC (Cuban IOTA NA-204) was on 80 and
> European signals calling them were down 15-20 db from the levels
> over the weekend. They were S9+25-30 dB on 160 Monday at 0230Z, a
> really awesome signal! They have been so loud that they have had no
> trouble putting a lot from 'mother Russia' into the log, the 17
> meter op in the mornings can be heard running stations in Russian,
> but will switch over to English when a loud station here QRMs the
> Europeans."
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good
> information and tutorials on propagation at
> http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for February 14 through 20 were 25, 59, 75, 74, 92,
> 117, and 106, with a mean of 78.3. 10.7 cm flux was 99.5, 100.1,
> 103.2, 105.5, 104.7, 112.4, and 113.5, with a mean of 105.6.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 4, 8, 8, 4, 6, and 5, with a
> mean of 6.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 3, 6, 7, 4,
> 5, and 6, with a mean of 6.
> NNNN
> /EX