[South Florida DX Association] Propagation Report

Fri Dec 31 09:21:10 EST 2010

>> QST de W1AW  
>> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052
>> From Tad Cook, K7RA
>> Seattle, WA  December 30, 2010
>> To all radio amateurs 
>> 
>> SB PROP ARL ARLP052
>> ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
>> 
>> There were no sunspots for a full week, from December 18-24.
>> Christmas day saw a return to sunspot activity, so the last two of
>> those spotless days were in the Thursday through Wednesday reporting
>> period in this bulletin, December 23-29.
>> 
>> Average daily sunspot number for this past week rose nearly 15
>> points to 19.7, and average daily solar flux was about the same as
>> last week.  It changed from 80.1 to 80.3.
>> 
>> The latest forecast from NOAA/USAF shows solar flux for December 31
>> through January 10 at 83, 84, 84, 82, 80, 80, 80, 83, 88, 88 and 88.
>> Predicted planetary A index 5 on December 31 through January 2, 7 on
>> January 3-6, and 5 again on January 7-10.
>> 
> 
> - Ignored:
>> Our report from Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet
>> conditions December 31 to January 3, unsettled geomagnetic
>> conditions January 4, quiet to unsettled January 5, and quiet again
>> on January 6.
>> 
>> Although there are two more days of sunspot and solar flux readings
>> to complete the 2010 data, with 363 data points we can easily
>> calculate the year's averages.
>> 
>> Yearly averages of daily sunspot numbers for 2004-2010 were, 68.6,
>> 48.9, 26.1, 12.8, 4.7, 5.1 and 25.5.
>> 
>> Yearly averages of daily noon 10.7 cm solar flux readings from
>> Penticton for 2004-2010 were 106.6, 91.9, 79.9, 73.1, 69, 70.6 and
>> 80.
>> 
>> These averages represent a nice increase in solar activity, but they
>> still indicate a weak solar cycle.  We can compare these averages
>> with yearly averages around the end of the previous solar cycle.
>> Cycle 23 probably ended in late 2008, and Cycle 22 ended in
>> mid-1996, so averages based on calendar year are somewhat skewed,
>> whereas counting 365 day periods or perhaps shorter increments after
>> the end of a cycle would not be.
>> 
>> For 1993-1998, yearly averages of daily sunspot numbers were 79,
>> 48.1, 28.7, 13.2, 30.7 and 88.7.  Over the same period the yearly
>> averages of daily solar flux were 109.5, 85.8, 77.1, 72, 81 and
>> 117.9.
>> 
>> But looking over the data at hand, as presented, tells us that the
>> activity at the minima between Cycles 23 and 24 was lower than
>> between 22 and 23, and Cycle 24 still seems to be advancing much
>> more slowly.
>> 
>> Perhaps at another time we could examine the averages over shorter
>> periods following each minimum.
>> 
>> Last week's bulletin neglected to mention the propagation column in
>> the January 2011 issue of Worldradio by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.
>> This is available for free online on the 20th day of each month.
>> This time Carl gives a careful analysis of skewed long-path
>> propagation on 40 meter CW between G3WW and YB0AZ, England to
>> Indonesia.  You can find it at http://www.worldradiomagazine.com,
>> and Carl's column runs from pages 38-40.
>> 
>> Jon Jones, N0JK regularly reports on E-skip openings on 6 meters.
>> This time he wrote, "Finally another winter season Es opening.  From
>> Wichita EM17 I worked K4UI EM76 with very loud signals at 0117 UTC
>> December 27.  Also heard a couple of '5s' in EL09 and K5AB/b EM10.
>> Most of it was going overhead as was too close in for most of the
>> Es."
>> 
>> You can take a look at this opening by querying
>> http://www.vhfdx.info/spots/.  He listed contacts from 0111z-0125z
>> on December 27.  Just leave everything at default, but select 50
>> MHz, Reported from 27 December 2010 at 0110 UTC until 27 December
>> 2010 at 0130 UTC, and select the maximum number of returned QSOs at
>> 100 or 250.  Click on "Submit Query," and you will see the listing.
>> 
>> You can also click on the NA Map tab to see a map of the paths
>> reported.  And if you want, you can expand the times in your query
>> to see more than what Jon reported.  Note that if you don't see QSOs
>> listed all the way to the early and late times you've entered,
>> either you have hit the 250 QSO limit, or there were no QSOs
>> reported during that period.  If you hit the limit, then just narrow
>> the time period, and also move the period forward and backward in
>> time to get a full report on 6 meter openings.  Also note that you
>> can restrict the report to paths greater than some arbitrary value.
>> 
>> Jon also reported working Canada on 6 meter CW on December 28, VE3EN
>> at 0214 UTC and VE2XK at 0309 UTC.  You can do a similar search to
>> examine this opening, too.
>> 
>> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
>> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
>> 
>> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
>> Technical Information Service web page at
>> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
>> numbers used in this bulletin, see
>> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
>> propagation bulletins is at
>> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good
>> information and tutorials on propagation at
>> http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.
>> 
>> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
>> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
>> 
>> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
>> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
>> 
>> Sunspot numbers for December 23 through 29 were 0, 0, 28, 28, 14,
>> 31, and 37, with a mean of 19.7. 10.7 cm flux was 80.1, 78.6, 79.4,
>> 80.5, 80.1, 80.7 and 82.6 with a mean of 80.3. Estimated planetary A
>> indices were 0, 3, 5, 2, 2, 13 and 3 with a mean of 4. Estimated
>> mid-latitude A indices were 1, 3, 4, 2, 1, 8 and 3 with a mean of
>> 3.1.
>> NNNN
>> /EX
> 
> - Done.
> 
> 
>> ZCZC AP52
>> QST de W1AW  
>> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052
>> From Tad Cook, K7RA
>> Seattle, WA  December 30, 2010
>> To all radio amateurs 
>> 
>> SB PROP ARL ARLP052
>> ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
>> 
>> There were no sunspots for a full week, from December 18-24.
>> Christmas day saw a return to sunspot activity, so the last two of
>> those spotless days were in the Thursday through Wednesday reporting
>> period in this bulletin, December 23-29.
>> 
>> Average daily sunspot number for this past week rose nearly 15
>> points to 19.7, and average daily solar flux was about the same as
>> last week.  It changed from 80.1 to 80.3.
>> 
>> The latest forecast from NOAA/USAF shows solar flux for December 31
>> through January 10 at 83, 84, 84, 82, 80, 80, 80, 83, 88, 88 and 88.
>> Predicted planetary A index 5 on December 31 through January 2, 7 on
>> January 3-6, and 5 again on January 7-10.
>> 
>> Our report from Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet
>> conditions December 31 to January 3, unsettled geomagnetic
>> conditions January 4, quiet to unsettled January 5, and quiet again
>> on January 6.
>> 
>> Although there are two more days of sunspot and solar flux readings
>> to complete the 2010 data, with 363 data points we can easily
>> calculate the year's averages.
>> 
>> Yearly averages of daily sunspot numbers for 2004-2010 were, 68.6,
>> 48.9, 26.1, 12.8, 4.7, 5.1 and 25.5.
>> 
>> Yearly averages of daily noon 10.7 cm solar flux readings from
>> Penticton for 2004-2010 were 106.6, 91.9, 79.9, 73.1, 69, 70.6 and
>> 80.
>> 
>> These averages represent a nice increase in solar activity, but they
>> still indicate a weak solar cycle.  We can compare these averages
>> with yearly averages around the end of the previous solar cycle.
>> Cycle 23 probably ended in late 2008, and Cycle 22 ended in
>> mid-1996, so averages based on calendar year are somewhat skewed,
>> whereas counting 365 day periods or perhaps shorter increments after
>> the end of a cycle would not be.
>> 
>> For 1993-1998, yearly averages of daily sunspot numbers were 79,
>> 48.1, 28.7, 13.2, 30.7 and 88.7.  Over the same period the yearly
>> averages of daily solar flux were 109.5, 85.8, 77.1, 72, 81 and
>> 117.9.
>> 
>> But looking over the data at hand, as presented, tells us that the
>> activity at the minima between Cycles 23 and 24 was lower than
>> between 22 and 23, and Cycle 24 still seems to be advancing much
>> more slowly.
>> 
>> Perhaps at another time we could examine the averages over shorter
>> periods following each minimum.
>> 
>> Last week's bulletin neglected to mention the propagation column in
>> the January 2011 issue of Worldradio by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.
>> This is available for free online on the 20th day of each month.
>> This time Carl gives a careful analysis of skewed long-path
>> propagation on 40 meter CW between G3WW and YB0AZ, England to
>> Indonesia.  You can find it at http://www.worldradiomagazine.com,
>> and Carl's column runs from pages 38-40.
>> 
>> Jon Jones, N0JK regularly reports on E-skip openings on 6 meters.
>> This time he wrote, "Finally another winter season Es opening.  From
>> Wichita EM17 I worked K4UI EM76 with very loud signals at 0117 UTC
>> December 27.  Also heard a couple of '5s' in EL09 and K5AB/b EM10.
>> Most of it was going overhead as was too close in for most of the
>> Es."
>> 
>> You can take a look at this opening by querying
>> http://www.vhfdx.info/spots/.  He listed contacts from 0111z-0125z
>> on December 27.  Just leave everything at default, but select 50
>> MHz, Reported from 27 December 2010 at 0110 UTC until 27 December
>> 2010 at 0130 UTC, and select the maximum number of returned QSOs at
>> 100 or 250.  Click on "Submit Query," and you will see the listing.
>> 
>> You can also click on the NA Map tab to see a map of the paths
>> reported.  And if you want, you can expand the times in your query
>> to see more than what Jon reported.  Note that if you don't see QSOs
>> listed all the way to the early and late times you've entered,
>> either you have hit the 250 QSO limit, or there were no QSOs
>> reported during that period.  If you hit the limit, then just narrow
>> the time period, and also move the period forward and backward in
>> time to get a full report on 6 meter openings.  Also note that you
>> can restrict the report to paths greater than some arbitrary value.
>> 
>> Jon also reported working Canada on 6 meter CW on December 28, VE3EN
>> at 0214 UTC and VE2XK at 0309 UTC.  You can do a similar search to
>> examine this opening, too.
>> 
>> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
>> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
>> 
>> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
>> Technical Information Service web page at
>> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
>> numbers used in this bulletin, see
>> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
>> propagation bulletins is at
>> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good
>> information and tutorials on propagation at
>> http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.
>> 
>> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
>> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
>> 
>> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
>> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
>> 
>> Sunspot numbers for December 23 through 29 were 0, 0, 28, 28, 14,
>> 31, and 37, with a mean of 19.7. 10.7 cm flux was 80.1, 78.6, 79.4,
>> 80.5, 80.1, 80.7 and 82.6 with a mean of 80.3. Estimated planetary A
>> indices were 0, 3, 5, 2, 2, 13 and 3 with a mean of 4. Estimated
>> mid-latitude A indices were 1, 3, 4, 2, 1, 8 and 3 with a mean of
>> 3.1.
>> NNNN
>> /EX