[South Florida DX Association] Fw: ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

[K2EWB]

 July 17, 2009 4:19 PM
Subject: ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA


> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP029
> ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP29
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 29  ARLP029
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  July 17, 2009
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP029
> ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> We saw a nice run of eight days with a large sunspot, but none have
> emerged in the six days since.  Unlike other recent spots, this one
> did not appear just for one or two days, then vanish.
> 
> Check the data at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt
> and note the Sunspot Area, expressed in millionths of a solar
> hemisphere, which kept growing after the daily Sunspot Number peaked
> at 26.
> 
> The solar flux dropped below 70 on July 9, two days before the
> disappearance of this latest spot, and it has stayed there since.
> Solar flux is expected to rise to 70 or above July 25 through August
> 5.  The same 45-day forecast at
> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html (I am looking
> at the July 16 forecast) predicts continued quiet and mild
> geomagnetic conditions, with planetary A index of 5.  The only
> predicted larger values we see for the next few weeks are 10 on July
> 21, 8 on July 28-29, and 8 and 7 on August 5-6.  This is a wonderful
> aspect of the weak solar wind, which does not play havoc with
> propagation as it does during stormier times.
> 
> Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for July
> 17-20, unsettled July 21, quiet to unsettled July 22, and back to
> quiet on July 23.
> 
> Many of us have been longing for the days of daily sunspot numbers
> above 100, but there was a downside, and that was from heightened
> geomagnetic activity.  While this could be nice for VHF operators
> wishing to aim their beams north and refract their signals off of
> aurora, for everyone else, especially those at higher latitudes, the
> effect on HF was not a good one.
> 
> I was looking in old issues of our propagation bulletin for
> examples, but found that our archive online only goes back to
> January of 1995, and we didn't begin recording any geomagnetic
> numbers until October 1996 when it was suggested by Robert Wood,
> WB5CRG (now W5AJ).  It began with just the planetary A index in
> ARLP042 on October 11 (see
> http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/1996-arlp042.html).
> 
> But looking back in bulletins from 1997 and especially 1998, we can
> see geomagnetic indicators that could wipe out HF communications for
> days at a time, causing some operators to believe that their radio
> was broken or feedline was cut.
> 
> Go to http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ and click on the ''Show older
> bulletins'' link toward the upper center of the page.
> 
> Any time the A index is above 15, conditions may begin to get rough.
> For 1997, check the bulletins numbered 40, 42, 44, 46 and 48.  Note
> that on some days, the planetary A index could get into the mid or
> high twenties, or even worse, the forties or sixties.  ARLP048 from
> 1997 describes a severe geomagnetic storm.
> 
> Conditions became tougher in 1998.  For that year, check out
> bulletins 13, 18, 19, 27, 30-33, 35, 36, 40, 43, 46 and 47.  Some
> days had planetary A index readings of 48, 52, 60, 69, 78, 96, 112
> and even 121.  This made HF conditions tough all over, but talk to
> someone who was trying to operate from Alaska in 1998.  Ketchikan is
> above 55 degrees North latitude, and Juneau above 58, but Anchorage
> is above 61 degrees, and Fairbanks, nearly 65 degrees north
> latitude, about 120 miles south of the Arctic Circle.  The further
> north you are, the more pronounced are the effects of geomagnetic
> disturbances.
> 
> So enjoy this weak solar wind.  It wasn't always like this.
> 
> Bob Leo, W7LR of Bozeman, Montana has worked with radios for many
> years.  He is 88 now, and you can see his bio at
> http://www.qrz.com/w7lr.  Bob reports a personal first on July 9
> when he heard Europe on 6 meters, which he says is new and exciting.
> At 1356z on 6 meter CW he spent a half hour working CT1HZE
> (Portugal) with strong signals.  Bob was running 100 watts into a
> 7-element Yagi at 45 feet.
> 
> Bill Gannaway, a reader in Greenville, Texas experienced some
> dramatic sporadic-E skip on July 10.  Around 2200z Bill was driving
> home from work, and trying to listen to a strong local station when
> it was covered over by a station in Tucson.  He tuned up the dial,
> and found a number of Phoenix and Tucson stations all up the band.
> A useful tool for identifying broadcast stations by frequency,
> location and callsign, is http://www.radio-locator.com/.  Click on
> Advanced Search.
> 
> Robert Forsman, WK5X of Stuart's Draft, Virginia reports an
> interesting six meter experience on July 6.
> 
> ''I've often wondered about what the shortest possible single-hop
> distance would be on 6 meter sporadic-E.  Until the opening of July
> 6 of this year, my personal shortest QSO via 6 meter sporadic-E was
> just a bit longer than 300 miles.  During these types of openings, I
> work grid squares that are otherwise difficult''.
> 
> ''Around 2300z on July 6, my XYL informed me (I was in the other end
> of the house) that my FT-897D, which I had accidentally left on, and
> parked on 50.095 MHz, was ''beeping loudly'' and that I needed to ''go
> turn that thing off''.  I thanked her for alerting me to the band
> opening''.
> 
> ''I'm not used to hearing 8's on 6 Meters.  From my QTH in Virginia's
> Shenandoah Valley, most of the 8's that I've worked have been either
> in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, or a mountaintop contest station
> in nearby West Virginia.  After settling at the rig, the first
> station that I worked was KA1VHF, near Columbus, OH.  The second
> station that I worked was KA8HOK, Millersport, OH at a distance of
> only 234 miles.  This was my shortest ever sporadic-E QSO.  I also
> noted that these were some of the strongest non-local signals that
> I've ever heard on this band.  A quick look at EA6VQ's estimated MUF
> real time map indicated that the estimated E-layer MUF at the
> midpoint between KA8HOK and myself was 303 MHz.  I believe that that
> is the highest I've ever seen on 'VQ's real time map.  Hopefully
> someone was able to take advantage of this on 1.25 Meters''.
> 
> ''Then, as the MUF over the region began to fall, the band grew
> longer.  My next contact was with northern Indiana, and then my next
> two were in southern Michigan''.
> 
> The EA6VQ tool that Bob refers to is at
> http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/map.php.
> 
> From July 8, Steve McDonald, VE7SL of Mayne Island, British Columbia
> sent this in.
> 
> ''Just a note to tell you of some truly great propagation this past
> week on the magic band.  Early on the morning of July 8 I had been
> chatting with Jack, OA4TT (140 km south of Lima Peru) on the ON4KST
> 50 MHz chat page.  As everyone tends to do when propagation is slow,
> we were jokingly describing what it might take to get a signal from
> OA to VE7 on multi-hop Es.  I posted that we needed the link to UT
> or Southern CA/Arizona, then into Mexico, Oceanic next and finally
> another hop down to Lima.  As we mused, I was hearing strong
> single-hop into Utah.  I left the shack for about an hour only to
> return to see that Jack had decided, just for fun, to send a few CW
> CQ's towards the USA on 50.1155.  With little expectation, I moved
> the receiver down to Jack's frequency and immediately heard him
> calling CQ.  After picking myself up from the floor, I gave him a
> short call to which he immediately responded.  Signals were weak
> (449) and somewhat watery and fluttery which leads me to think that
> this was something other than multi-hop Es.  At something over 5,000
> miles, this mid-summer contact demonstrated why the 'magic' band
> continues to live-up to its name''.
> 
> Check Steve's web page, the VE7SL Radio Notebook:
> http://members.shaw.ca/ve7sl/
> 
> Martin McCormick, WB5AGZ of Stillwater, Oklahoma offered some very
> interesting comments on TV channels 2-6 after the digital TV
> transition.
> 
> ''Central Oklahoma is now devoid of local signals between 54-88 MHz
> and the listening is interesting.  Sunday July 12 was the last day
> of the ''Nightlight'' service that Congress authorized so that one TV
> station in each market could keep an analog transmitter going with a
> loop to tell the 1 or 2 people who hadn't figured it out yet what
> needed to be done to receive TV over the air.
> 
> KOCO Channel 5 in Oklahoma City was the last full-power analog to go
> dark there and Monday July 13 saw a moderate Es opening with Spanish
> language TV probably from Mexico fading in briefly around 17:00 UTC
> on 81.75 MHz.
> 
> A couple of propagation Observations:
> 
> We have had several days this year in which Mexican signals reached
> as far up as the low end of the FM Broadcast band.  When that
> happened, TV Channels 2-6 were full of Spanish and sometimes English
> and French from Canada.
> 
> In a QST article of a couple of years ago, someone mentioned that it
> would be nice to see if we can get the 72-76 MHz band for North
> America.  The services there now could move to an equal amount of
> space in one of the vacated TV channels and make this an interesting
> DX band.
> 
> A couple of weeks ago, I had left a receiver tuned to TV Channel 4
> at 71.75 MHZ.  We have had very hot summer days and the tropo at
> night has been fairly impressive.  Instead of Es, I got literally
> hours of a Channel 4 television audio signal from somewhere within
> the central US.  It was running the endless loop nightlight service
> with no aural ID so I don't know where it was, but it didn't fade
> out until after Sunrise at which time it went away fast.  One can
> guess that 6 meters and 72 MHZ would have been hot during that
> night.
> 
> It is strange to spin the dial on a general coverage VHF receiver
> now and not hear the buzz of video and FM audio landmarks that were
> there since before many of our births, but Canada and Mexico will
> provide good propagation beacons for a few more years to come.
> 
> I believe it was February QST where I read that 37 US broadcasters
> will keep their new digital signals on Channels 2-6. I wonder for
> how long and how many Es openings it will take to change their
> minds''.
> 
> Thanks, Martin.
> 
> Jeff Lackey, K8CQ of St. Simons Island, Georgia writes:
> 
> ''Six meters has been great as you have been commenting in your
> weekly solar update.  And I had to tell you that even ''lousy
> antennas'' can work, such as my 15 ft flag pole that I use mostly on
> HF.  But as a joke I found it would load up on 6 meters a couple of
> years ago.  Over the last couple of weeks, I've made about 100
> contacts on 6m in 19 states and 6 DX entities.  Yesterday (15 July
> 2009) at 2050Z I worked CT1HZE.  He was S5 when I worked him, but
> later he peaked to S8 working many NA stations.  That was my first
> European QSO on 6m.  Earlier around 2000Z I had heard EA8AK (S8)
> working into Spain.  He didn't hear me.  I heard several EU stations
> but all too weak to make contact.
> 
> So I am now up to 37 states and 13 DX entities on 6 meters with my
> flag pole antenna.  I encourage others in CC&R situations to get on
> and try out this ''magic band.''  It is a lot of fun when Es band
> conditions exist.  The beacons below 50.080 are a great help in
> knowing if the band is open.  And don't be afraid to call CQ.  I
> have done this many times when the band for me seemed dead.  Every
> once in awhile I am surprised to get a response''.
> 
> Don't forget the CQ World Wide VHF Contest this weekend.
> 
> See http://www.cqww-vhf.com/ for details.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.  For a detailed
> explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html.  An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this
> bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for July 9 through 15 were 15, 13, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0
> with a mean of 4.  10.7 cm flux was 69.1, 67.8, 68.2, 68, 67.2,
> 66.6, and 66.5 with a mean of 67.6.  Estimated planetary A indices
> were 6, 7, 4, 5, 10, 8 and 5 with a mean of 6.4.  Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 6, 7, 2, 4, 5, 6 and 3 with a mean of
> 4.7.
> NNNN
> /EX