[South Florida DX Association] ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

> ZCZC AP25
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25  ARLP025
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  June 18, 2004
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP025
> ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Several large sunspot groups now pepper the earth-facing side of the
> sun, and sunspots are also detected on the sun's far side. Daily
> sunspot numbers rose this week to a high of 113, although the weekly
> average was down a few points from last week. Average daily solar
> flux numbers rose this week over eight points. Geomagnetic
> conditions were fairly quiet, with the most active day on Tuesday,
> June 15.
> 
> The current forecast shows solar flux up around 110 over the
> weekend, June 18-20, then dropping to 100 by June 25. Conditions
> don't look bad for this weekend's All Asian DX CW Contest.
> 
> As the current solar cycle slowly declines, it is interesting to
> anticipate how long it might be past the solar minimum for sunspot
> activity to rise again to current levels. A prediction from NOAA,
> seen at http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt shows the
> solar minimum around December 2006. The furthest out the chart
> projects is December 2007, with a predicted sunspot number around
> 21.3. The same chart predicts a level near that value around
> December 2004. This means that after December 2004, conditions won't
> rise again to that level until three years later.
> 
> To look at historical charts of previous solar cycles, check
> http://www.qsl.net/w3df/sfarch.html and
> http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/historical.shtml.
> 
> For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of
> the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information
> Service propagation page at
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for June 10 through 16 were 50, 45, 28, 55, 77, 87
> and 113 with a mean of 65. 10.7 cm flux was 82.5, 83.9, 88, 95.2,
> 99.9, 109.4 and 111.5, with a mean of 95.8. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 11, 10, 7, 4, 11, 16 and 7, with a mean of 9.4.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 5, 5, 3, 9, 14 and 7, with
> a mean of 7.3.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
> 
>