[PBARC] Severe Weather Outlook

[E Glenn Wolf Jr]

----- Original Message -----
From: "John.Robinson"To: <undisclosed-recipients:>
Sent: Wednesday, May 06, 2009 9:44 AM
Subject: Severe Weather Outlook

 > Wednesday, May 6, 2009, 9:45 AM
 >
 > The thunderstorm activity currently over the southern part of the state
 > will shift southeastward out of Arkansas over the next few hours. Until
 > the storms exit the state, however, there will be a threat of severe
 > storms along the leading edge of the activity. Areas most at risk 
will be
 > the southeast corner of the state. Very heavy rain will accompany the
 > storms and will linger for several hours behind the leading edge of the
 > storms. Flash flooding will be a big risk with this heavy rain.
 >
 > After the storms and their rain exit Arkansas, there should be a lull
 > until Thursday.
 >
 > Thursday afternoon, we could see a few severe storms in the northern 
half
 > of the state during the afternoon. However, the greater threat will
 > likely begin during the late afternoon or early evening as new storms 
move
 > into northwest Arkansas. Initially, a few tornadoes, and large hail and
 > damaging winds will be the threats. Later on into the evening and
 > continuing through the overnight hours, the severe weather is likely to
 > transition to a damaging wind event. While there will be a threat of
 > severe weather in all parts of the state, the greatest risk should be 
over
 > the northern half of the state.
 >
 > On Friday, there will likely be some storms during the daylight hours.
 > However, the greatest risk of severe weather is likely to occur from
 > evening into the overnight hours, with damaging winds and large hail 
being
 > the main threats. The primary area will be the northern two thirds of 
the
 > state.
 >
 > I need to emphasize that the events for Thursday and Friday are very
 > likely to occur. However, the timing of the events is the thing most 
open
 > to question. In other words, don't be surprised if the timing I 
mentioned
 > above ends up being off a little.
 >
 > I'll not enumerate the various flash flood watches in effect at the
 > current time. However, you can see them all at
 > http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk <http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk>
 > Suffice it to say that the rounds of thunderstorms over the next few 
days
 > are very likely to necessitate additional flash flood watches and
 > warnings. Each round of storms should produce widespread 1/2 to 1 1/2
 > inch amounts with some areas picking up at least 2 to 3 inches of rain.
 >
 > I will be out of the office the rest of the day looking at storm 
damage in
 > Drew County. Thus, I will not be able to issue the next message until
 > early Thursday morning.
 >
 > John Robinson
 > Warning Coordination Meteorologist
 > National Weather Service, Little Rock
 > Office Web site: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk 
<http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk>
 >

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