[PBARC] Severe Weather Outlook

[E Glenn Wolf Jr]

Friday, September 7, 2007, 3:15 PM

The flash flood threat is increasing for northern Arkansas from tonight 
through the weekend. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for most of 
northwest and north central Arkansas.

The combination of a very slow-moving front and an abundant moisture 
supply (partially due to the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Henriette) 
promises to bring widespread rain to Arkansas over the weekend, with 
large amounts expected in northern sections.

I believe we will see heavy rain increase in the north during the 
overnight hours, taper off somewhat during the day Saturday, and then 
increase again Saturday night. Whenever tropical moisture is in place, 
the largest rainfall amounts very often occur late at night and early in 
the morning, posing a greater threat to motorists.

 From this evening until Sunday evening, most areas north of a line from 
Waldron to Conway to Piggott are likely to receive more than 2 inches of 
rain. At least 3 inches will likely fall over most of northwest and 
north central Arkansas, and some of the totals could easily reach 4 to 6 
inches. The largest amounts will probably be in northwest Arkansas.

Most other parts of the state will probably pick up at least 1/2 to 1 
1/2 inches of rain.

When I was training to be a forecaster, one of the senior forecasters 
(who was from Arkansas) told me "Droughts are frequently broken by 
floods." While this isn't always the case, it certainly has happened a 
number of times over the last couple of decades.

As far as severe thunderstorm threats go, I have few changes to what I 
wrote this morning. With all the cloudiness and showers in northern 
Arkansas today, it does look like chances for an isolated tornado have 
diminished.

I will issue the next message around 9:30 AM Saturday.

John Robinson Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather 
Service, Little Rock Office Web site: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk