[PBARC] Above Average Hurricane Season

[WOLF, EARNEST G]

Mar 27, 2006

Hurricane expert: Above average season headed S.C.'s way

By JIM NEWMAN
Morning News

MYRTLE BEACH - A hurricane expert with the National Hurricane Center said Monday to look for an "above average" 2006 storm season that will likely churn out some big-name tempests. But 2006 shouldn't surpass last year's record-breaking hurricane season. 
That was the word at this year's South Carolina Hurricane/Emergency Management Workshop in Myrtle Beach, which was attended by more than 500 professionals from federal, state and local governments looking to prepare better for any deadly hurricanes that might swing South Carolina's way.
Hurricane expert Stacy Stewart said 2005 saw the formation of 27 tropical storm systems, breaking a 1933 record during which time 21 formed.
He emphasized, however, that you have to keep such numbers in perspective.
"Back in 1933 we didn't have reconnaissance aircraft or satellites to detect a lot of the storms that, last year, occurred out in the far central and eastern Atlantic Ocean," he said.
"The public needs to understand that we are in one of these active hurricane cycles. These are natural cycles that occur."
And the patterns that make up this active period are still in place for the season that begins June 1.
"We see really no significant change in the atmospheric patterns or the oceanic patterns, meaning that temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are still warmer and above normal from what we typically see," Stewart said.
Gov. Mark Sanford, who also briefly addressed the conference, said that, short of being alarmist, it's important to "imagine the unimaginable" when it comes to hurricanes.
"Let's just do the math," he said. "The one spot that hasn't got hit recently is South Carolina. Mathematics says that we are more than due for a storm to come across our shores."
The chances for that possibility are only strengthened by the fact that the hurricane-suppressing phenomenon known as El Ni"o will likely be noticeably absent this year, Stewart said.
El Ni"o is a phenomenon involving the warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific that set in motion a series of weather patterns, which tend to inhibit hurricane formation in the Atlantic.
So, should the Palmetto State be worried?
Stewart described Hurricane Hugo, which struck near Charleston in 1989, as South Carolina's "benchmark" storm. Another could someday strike that is far worse.
"Unfortunately, it's like Hurricane Camille, which was Mississippi's benchmark storm," he said. "Many people lost their lives in Hurricane Katrina because they based their decisions on how they fared during Camille in 1969. That was a bad decision on their part. We don't want to see that happen here in South Carolina with people who survived Hugo."


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