[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[egwolfjr at email.com]

Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

FLUS44 KLZK 261052 AAB
HWOLZK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271100-
INDEPENDENCE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-IZARD-NEWTON-SEARCY-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-
JEFFERSON-STONE-HOT SPRING-GRANT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-GARLAND-CLEVELAND-
DALLAS-CALHOUN-OUACHITA-DESHA-LINCOLN-LOGAN-BRADLEY-SALINE-BAXTER-
MARION-SHARP-FULTON-BOONE-MONTGOMERY-POLK-JACKSON-CLEBURNE-
VAN BUREN-POPE-PIKE-PULASKI-MONROE-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-DREW-ARKANSAS-
CLARK-JOHNSON-
500 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARKANSAS THIS 
MORNING WHILE A WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA 
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY THE SYSTEM IN TEXAS 
ARE SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS 
OR NORTHERN LOUISIANA EARLY SATURDAY. 

THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION 
THROUGH THE DAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST WIND ALOFT... 
WHICH WILL PULL WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE 
ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER. AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL BECOME 
WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME STEADIER AND 
HEAVIER DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES...MAINLY FROM CENTRAL INTO 
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A MENA TO 
HOT SPRINGS TO LITTLE ROCK TO HEBER SPRINGS TO NEWPORT LINE. 
WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY 
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS APPROACHING THREE 
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A SLOW MOVER AS IT RUNS INTO A VERY 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. IN 
ADDITION...WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT 
QUICKLY. IF THE SYSTEM DOES SLOW DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED...RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS MAY BE EVEN HIGHER. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING 
OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL BE A CONCERN.

NEAR THE FRONT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME STORMS MAY BE 
SEVERE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS 
THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE 
AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY 

THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST 
OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE NORTHWEST. 
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EXIT THE STATE DURING THE 
EVENING AND SHOULD ALL BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY EARLY 
MONDAY.

PERSONS ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS AND 
FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL 
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN IN ARKANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY 
MORNING. 

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ARKANSAS ON 
WEDNESDAY... BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE 
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY 
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE 
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

$$

73,
Glenn