[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[egwolfjr at email.com]

Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

FLUS44 KLZK 161010
HWOLZK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN 
KANSAS...AND MOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE COMPLEX 
WEAKENED AS IT HEADED INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS TOWARD DAWN. THE 
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS 
MORNING...AND WILL HEAD INTO THE NATURAL STATE BY EARLY 
AFTERNOON.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING MUCH OF 
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEWLY 
FORMED COMPLEX...THERE MAY BE A BOOMERANG SHAPED LINE OF STORMS 
CALLED A BOW ECHO. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS OFTEN ACCOMPANY 
BOWS...AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

ALSO...SUCH A COMPLEX OFTEN PRODUCES HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE TO TWO INCH 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR FROM ROUGHLY FAYETTEVILLE TO 
CLARKSVILLE...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING FARTHER SOUTHEAST.

TOWARD EVENING...STORMS WILL HAVE BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE 
COMPLEX ARRIVES IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. 
HOWEVER...MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

A NEW COMPLEX WILL FORM IN OKLAHOMA ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST TO 
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ARKANSAS. THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT 
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE WEE HOURS OF FRIDAY 
MORNING. AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE 
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL 
TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...AND INTO LOUISIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON 
HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED 
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT TO THE 
SOUTHWEST OF ARKANSAS PARKED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH AN EAST WIND 
ACROSS THE STATE...MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BE 
MARGINAL...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST. BY LATE IN THE 
WEEKEND...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT. 

A CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT FROM THE 
NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY...TONIGHT AND EARLY 
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BE 
DUE TO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS AND HEADING 
THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

$$

73,
Glenn