[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[egwolfjr at email.com]

Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

FLUS44 KLZK 280938
HWOLZK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-291000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

ALSO...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY FOR MUCH OF
ARKANSAS. THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OKLAHOMA...AND HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH LATER THIS MORNING. BOATERS ON AREA BODIES
OF WATER SHOULD USE CAUTION.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ON FRIDAY MORNING
AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

ATTENTION THEN WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION. IT APPEARS
THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN EASTERN
ARKANSAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IF THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS DOWN...HOWEVER...THE STORMS COULD DEVELOP A LITTLE FURTHER
WESTWARD...IN THE LITTLE ROCK COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE STORMS WOULD
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE IN EASTERN
ARKANSAS...CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
MAY CHANGE. PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF ARKANSAS AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST
BY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE FRONT
BACKS TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO STALL NEAR THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND SEVERAL
WAVES INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT IN ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS.

$$

73,
Glenn