[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[egwolfjr at email.com]

Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

FLUS44 KLZK 010407
HWOLZK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE UPWARD FROM THE SOUTH WHILE A SLOW 
MOVING COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF 
PACIFIC MOISTURE ARE BEING BROUGHT INTO THE STATE ON VERY STRONG 
WINDS ALOFT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM AND LIFT 
THAT WARM AND HUMID AIR UPWARDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD 
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING. 
THE ODDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE MINIMAL TONIGHT BUT LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT AT 
MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE STATE. THE 
INTERACTION OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO 
CONTINUE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN 
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AS THE FRONT CRAWLS THROUGH THE 
STATE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
COULD EXCEED 3 OR 4 INCHES IN PLACES. THIS COULD CREATE FLASH 
FLOODING PROBLEMS...AND RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS. THOSE 
WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION 
..AS FARM LANDS NEAR RIVER BANKS ARE LIKELY TO FLOOD. THE FLASH 
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING. 

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS COLD 
FRONT ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. STRONG 
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. 

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE STATE AND 
NOT EVEN REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNTIL VERY EARLY TUESDAY. 
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE 
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLD 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL BRIEFLY OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH A 
STRONG ARE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON IT. THIS WILL PRODUCE 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TUESDAY BUT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF 
THE STATE. THE UPPER LEVEL PART OF THIS COMPLEX STORM STILL NEEDS TO 
PASS OVER HEAD ON WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT 
BY THEN...THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST.  

THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE STATE AND SWEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE 
EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH 
COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE STATE.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH 
TUESDAY. MANY AREAS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS HAVE RECEIVED 7 
TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
WILL ONLY INUNDATE AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. MONITOR THE LATEST 
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND BE 
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY.

$$

73,
Glenn